Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet, a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report written by Mike Cerulli.

The battles for the most competitive seats in the General Assembly have taken a bit of a backseat in the midst of this summer’s marquee primaries. So, this week, we’re taking a look at some of the races that will define Connecticut’s electoral map this fall. 

These races certainly aren’t the only ones that will capture the attention of the state’s political scene, but they offer a good starting point for an analysis of just how much the balance of power could shift in Hartford. Just how large will Matt Ritter and Bob Duff's majorities be? These races will play a large role in determining that.

Let’s dive in…

Forget Fairfield County? The toughest State Senate battles might be elsewhere

The two open Senate seats in the heart of Fairfield County – one generated by the departure of Tony Hwang, the other by Ryan Fazio’s decision to run for governor – have long been targets for the Democrats.

Hwang has drawn a string of well-organized challenges dating back to the 2018 “blue wave” midterm. The roster of would-be senators includes a nonprofit executive, a Yale-educated Army vet, and a seasoned political operative. That operative, Rob Blanchard, is making a second run for the seat this year. He faces the Republican Amybeth Laroche. After a recent re-location by Blanchard and his young family, both candidates are residents of Newtown.

There’s reason to believe the race for the 28th will be more competitive than the bout two years ago, when Hwang cruised to victory. Laroche lacks Hwang’s name recognition, and Blanchard appears to be working hard to define her before she has a chance to fully introduce herself to voters in the district, which also includes Fairfield, Easton, and Bethel.

A recent Dan Haar column on Laroche’s tax and voting history (Haar reports she voted in New York two years ago) has all the hallmarks of a story uncovered with the whispered help of political actors. Laroche fired back in the opinion page of Haar’s outlet.

Further south, in the Greenwich-based district being vacated by Fazio, a spirited contest between Democrat Jill Oberlander and Republican Joe Kelly is underway. That race has garnered less statewide attention than the contest for the 28th, but is nonetheless top of mind for Senate leadership on both sides of the aisle.

So, we all know about the two Fairfield County Senate races to watch.

What about the rest of the state?

It’s possible that the toughest Senate matchups might actually lie outside the southern enclaves of the state’s richest county. Two of them are at the top of each party’s list of potential flips.

In the sprawling 8th District, incumbent Paul Honig is running to defend his seat against Mike Criss, the Harwinton first selectman. Honig flipped the seat in 2024, defeating Lisa Seminara by about 300 votes. Seminara had won the seat by just over 100 votes two years earlier.

Another potentially close Senate race is shaping up in the 35th District, currently held by incumbent Republican Jeff Gordon, who notched a relatively comfortable win in 2024 after a string of three elections narrowly won by him and his predecessor, Dan Champagne.

Democrat Ethan Werstler is carrying his party’s banner in this year’s election. Werstler is a familiar name and face to the Capitol crowd. The Woodstock native worked for the lobbying firm Rome Smith Kowalski.

For those counting along, these four races tally up to three red seats being targeted by Democrats and one blue seat being targeted by the GOP. There is a scenario in which the bottom completely falls out for Republicans, leading to a clean Democratic sweep which would push Steve Harding’s caucus into the single digits. A strong defense in Fairfield County is a prerequisite to avoid this outcome, and a flip (in the 8th District or elsewhere) would provide either a buffer to absorb a loss or tee up a net gain for the GOP.

Facing a tough map, Republicans hope for a flip in Southington

It doesn’t take a political genius to observe that November is going to be tough for Republicans. The Senate map is illustrative of this reality with its scant opportunities for GOP pickups and the looming possibility of a caucus barely able to field a baseball team.

In the House, the worst case scenario for the GOP could see Vin Candelora’s 49-member caucus sink closer to 40. There is no shortage of potential electoral pitfalls for the House Republicans (more on that in a second). But the House Republicans have their eyes on several districts that could provide escape routes from midterm doom.

In Southington, many leading House Republicans believe Rebecca Martinez’s 22nd District could be ripe for a flip. Yes, Southington is also home of Chris Poulos’ 81st District. Poulos infamously won his seat by a one-vote margin in 2022. But he delivered a nearly 1,700-vote victory two years later, thanks to an unrelenting work ethic and a well-known willingness to occasionally buck his own party. Because of this, some Republicans believe that Martinez’s district, which has been the venue for two close elections, is likely a better bet than Poulos’.

The Republican hopes for a Southington flip ride on Richard Mette in the 22nd and Tim Wilk in the 81st.

On the shoreline, Democrats look to expand a trend

Out east, a smattering of House districts will determine if the recent trend of red-to-blue flips continues for another cycle.

Democrats claimed two new seats on the shoreline in 2024, building on Ned Lamont’s construction of a nearly impenetrable wall along the entire Connecticut coast. In 2022, all but one town (hello, East Haven) that touches Long Island Sound voted for the governor.

In order to stop the Democratic march up the coastline, Republicans will need to shore up (pun intended) support in the seat being vacated by Devin Carney. Republican Barbara Labriola and Democrat Jane Wisialowski are duking it out to fill the seat. Wisialowski made a run against Carney two years ago, falling by three points. Next door, another Democrat, Cinzia Lettieri, is making a second attempt to flip Chris Aniskovich’s district. She lost by 150 votes last time around and remains a top prospect for her party to expand its supermajority.

Of course, Republicans would like to do more than just defend two vulnerable seats. Erasing some of the Democrats’ shoreline gains would necessarily mean ousting one or both of the Nicks who flipped those shoreline seats. Nick Menapace and Nick Gauthier sit right next to Martinez on the GOP’s list of electoral targets.

That’s all for this week. We’ll be back next week with another edition of the Tip Sheet!