Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet, a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report written by Mike Cerulli.

This week, we’re asking three questions before Tuesday’s primary – not about the results but about what the results will tell us as we head toward November.

First, a word on a developing story you might’ve missed last week.

Bridgeport Police have confirmed an active investigation after a woman accused Dennis Bradley, the former Democratic state senator who was convicted in March of 6 federal wire fraud charges, of opening her sealed absentee ballot and instructing her to switch her vote from Paul Ganim, the incumbent probate judge, to the former senator’s brother, Mark.

The woman provided reporters with video captured on her home security camera.

To hear the woman’s story and Bradley’s responses to questioning from News 8, click here.

With that, let’s dive in.

Three questions for primary day

What would be a "good showing’" for Josh Elliott?

Obviously, Josh Elliott is hoping to deliver a stunning upset on Tuesday – and what a stunning upset it would be if the 5-term progressive lawmaker manages to unseat Ned Lamont. An Elliott victory would undoubtedly make national headlines and could make this fall’s election one of the most-watched gubernatorial races in the country. But all available public polling seems to indicate that Elliottt’s path to victory is exceedingly narrow.

So, what would constitute a good showing for Elliott if he ends up falling short?

It seems like everyone in the Connecticut political universe has a take on this. Some Elliott allies have circulated a theory that any result above 40% would be a strong performance.

In Lamont’s camp, there are a wide range of predictions. On the high end, some allies of the governor believe Lamont’s share of the vote could breach 60% thanks in part to strong support in Fairfield County and a concentration of competitive primary elections in the Greater Hartford area boosting turnout for the ‘Row A’ slate of endorsed Democrats. Preliminary early vote numbers appear to support the theory that the Capitol region is seeing particularly strong turnout. West Hartford, Bloomfield, and Manchester were among the leading towns for early votes cast, according to a Friday tally.

Other Lamont supporters have projected more caution, underscoring the unpredictable nature of an August primary and the unprecedented combination of this year’s two main Democratic contests. The early vote numbers have also provided some flickers of hope for those pulling for an Elliott upset. Hamden placed second behind West Hartford in the Friday numbers.

What’s your prediction for the gubernatorial primary?

Drop us a line at Michael.Cerulli@protonmail.com. We’ll give a shoutout next week to those who came the closest. 

For Republicans, what does a "good night" look like?

While the 1st Congressional District and the gubernatorial race have attracted the most attention this summer, Republicans are preparing to hold not one but two congressional primaries of their own.

In the 4th Congressional District, Dan Miressi and Michael Goldstein are facing off for the GOP nod to oppose Jim Himes. In the 5th Congressional District, Chris Shea and Jonathan De Barros are in a very heated battle to take on Jahana Hayes. In the view of most establishment Republicans, the thought of having De Barros on the ballot next to Ryan Fazio in one of the state’s most competitive regions represents a hazard they’d rather not deal with heading into what will likely be a very difficult election.

For those unfamiliar with the 5th District’s GOP primary, check out this great story by Mark Pazniokas. It’s a doozy.

Many leading Republicans in the 5th District clearly have their preference.

Steve Harding and Joe Canino, two Republicans whose districts are on the Democrats’ radar as possible flips, both recently issued public endorsements of Shea.

Any definition of a good night for Republicans, especially those with a vested interest in defying a negative political environment, also includes ensuring that Jadon MacCormack, the party-endorsed state House candidate running in Pat Boyd’s district who has promoted Holocaust denialism and called for the death penalty for same-sex couples, lose his primary.

The revelations of MacCormack’s views created a slew of negative headlines and diverted organizing resources when staff and members of Vin Candelora’s House Republican Office mounted a last-minute effort to get Tony Emilio of Pomfret onto the ballot.

Now, those same Republicans are hoping to defeat MacCormack and likely avoid some additional headaches. Even if the House Republicans are able to remove MacCormack from the 2026 equation, we likely haven’t heard the last from the controversial candidate. In a YouTube video, MacCormack announced his intention to run for Joe Courtney’s congressional seat in 2028.

How fast does the gubernatorial race pivot toward November?

Whoever wins the Democratic gubernatorial primary will face a tactical decision as soon as the race is called.

In the absence of a Republican primary, Ryan Fazio has been able to build out his campaign operation and begin introducing himself to the general electorate while his two potential opponents duke it out amongst themselves.

If Lamont wins on Tuesday, he’ll be in a position to use his vast personal wealth to continue airing television ads for the remainder of the summer and into early fall, defining himself and Fazio. Such a move could essentially force Fazio to either draw down his finite financial resources or leave Lamont unopposed on the airwaves.

Paid advertising, of course, is only one part of the pivot to the general election. Lamont and Elliott, for that matter, have yet to fully flesh out what their message against Fazio would be. Fazio, meanwhile, has been trumpeting the same consistent message on cost of living issues for the entirety of his campaign. The only consistent attacks against Fazio have so far come from the Connecticut Democratic Party, which has been relentlessly firing off press releases seeking to define Fazio as a MAGA Republican. Lamont, however, has appeared somewhat hesitant to follow that approach himself, declining to embrace that description of Fazio at a press conference earlier this year.

“Not the language I use,” Lamont said.

That’s all for this week. We’ll be back next week with another edition of the Tip Sheet!