Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet, a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report written by Mike Cerulli.

This week, we’re taking a look at the state of play for the control of the State Senate. Another retirement announcement has ensured that the upper chamber will, in all likelihood, be getting at least three new members.

Let’s dive in…

Maher’s retirement and an early look at the Senate map

State Sen. Ceci Maher, the two-term Democratic incumbent who represents a sprawling Fairfield County district, announced her decision to retire last Thursday.

“Now is the right time to step aside to let them take the reins and craft the legislation that will shape Connecticut for the coming decades,” Maher said in a written statement.

Rumors that Maher was eyeing retirement had been swirling for a few weeks. The Tip Sheet first reported on them in last week’s newsletter along with word that State Rep. Lucy Dathan’s name has been floated as a possible successor. Dathan is a declared candidate for re-election to her House seat and has yet to send any public signals indicating interest in a move to the Senate.

Though Maher’s seat is likely not in any danger of switching party control – Maher has dispatched both her opponents, including the former State Sen. Toni Boucher, by double digits – it is the latest addition to the list of open Senate races.

So far, there are two other districts that are, barring extraordinary developments in the gubernatorial contest, venues for open races. One is the district currently held by the retiring State Sen. Jan Hochadel. In that race, State Rep. Jack Fazzino and Cheshire councilman Jim Jinks are both vying for the Democratic nomination. The other open seat is the one currently held by State Sen. Ryan Fazio. While there’s always the remote chance that Fazio could opt for a last minute retreat from his ambitions for the state’s highest office, insiders are treating his district as an open succession fight. Republican Joe Kelly and Democrat Jill Oberlander are already declared candidates.

The fight for partisan control of Fazio’s 36th District, which includes all of Greenwich and portions of New Canaan and northern Stamford, will undoubtedly be one of the most heated of the 2026 election. The district was near the top of the Democrats’ list of targets to flip in the last cycle. In the absence of a Republican incumbent, many Democrats are confident they have a good shot at seizing the seat.

A similar dynamic could play out in the Fairfield-based 28th District, which was also one of the most coveted prizes in the last election.

In the last four cycles, Democrats have fielded energized campaigns in their quest to dislodge State Sen. Tony Hwang. Michelle McCabe tried twice, very slightly improving on a single digit margin between 2018 and 2020. Tim Gavin came even closer in 2022, falling to Hwang by less than 1,000 votes. In 2024, many Democrats were sure that Rob Blanchard, with his formidable political instincts and deep reservoir of campaign experience, could finish the job. He lost by 9 points.

This year, Hwang’s future is unclear. His reputation as an electoral juggernaut was tarnished by a stinging loss in the special election to be Fairfield’s first selectman. In the immediate aftermath of that defeat, Hwang did not give a definitive answer when asked if he’d seek re-election to his Senate seat. Should he choose to retire from the legislature and perhaps refocus his efforts on winning the first selectman race in 2027, his seat would become an even more enticing pick up opportunity for the Democrats.

Even if Hwang does decide to run for re-election, renomination by his own party is far from a guarantee. Newtown Republican Amybeth Laroche launched her campaign for the seat with force, rolling out endorsements from key Republicans in the district.

The state of the races for the 28th and 36th districts illustrates the electoral challenge facing the 11-member Senate Republican caucus in this year’s election. While Democrats navigate succession in safe blue seats (and don’t forget the primary that will likely occur in the district held by the embattled State Sen. Doug McCrory), Republicans must juggle defense and offense.

The GOP’s offensive opportunities in the Senate seem limited so far to the districts currently held by State Sen. Paul Honig and State Sen. Mae Flexer. Honig won the 8th District in 2024, unseating Lisa Seminara, a freshman Republican. That race was decided by little more than 300 votes. This year, many GOP insiders are hopeful that Michael Criss, the Harwinton first selectman who is currently vying for the party nomination with Canton’s Andrew Ziemba, can mount a strong challenge. As for Flexer, she fended off Republican Chris Reddy by just under 600 votes in 2024. The two are spooling up for a rematch – with Flexer seeming more and more secure from the primary rumors the Tip Sheet previously reported on.

Any scenario in which Republicans notch a net gain of seats in the Senate would require hitting a multi-leg electoral parlay: winning at least three of the competitive seats while avoiding any losses in safer red seats that Democrats seem determined to put on that map. Anything less than that and the Senate Republicans will teeter closer to single digit status.

That’s all for this week. We’ll be back next week with another edition of the Tip Sheet!