Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet, a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report written by Mike Cerulli.

This week, we’ll take a look at a minor controversy that befell the Ryan Fazio campaign.

But first, we’re traveling into the future.

Let’s dive in.

Welcome to 2028

The headlines paint the picture.

The Connecticut Mirror: “Larson lost to a younger challenger. Could Blumenthal face a similar test?”

Kevin Rennie in the Hartford Courant: “Norms have been broken. How the future landed in Connecticut.”

Mike Savino and Mike Hydeck’s NBC Connecticut Podcast: "Connecticut politics just changed.”

Of all the analysis delivered after the election, it was Hydeck who spun perhaps the most blunt line.

“He got thumped,” the longtime anchor said at the top of his interview with Jonathan Wharton, a well-regarded political science professor at SCSU.

Indeed, Luke Bronin’s commanding victory has sent ripples through the Connecticut political community, with questions about the longevity of the state’s remaining incumbents growing louder and louder.

The consensus among Democratic insiders – most of whom are hesitant to speak on the record – is that the question of Blumenthal’s future is one that is best answered sooner rather than later. How soon? Some say that the most established potential successors would rather not be in the same position Bronin found himself in last year, when two relatively unknown Democrats fired the starting gun in the effort to unseat Larson. Those two candidates – Ruth Fortune and Jack Perry – failed to gain enough traction to seriously contest the seat. But the risk of a breakout candidate, one enters the race as an explicit challenger to Blumenthal rather than an anointed successor, remains.

Complicating matters further is the possibility that Blumenthal might not be the only incumbent whose seat is put in play two years from now. Rosa DeLauro and Joe Courtney are both subjects of 2028 speculation, and Republicans believe they’d have a shot at contesting Courtney’s once-competitive 2nd District in the absence of the popular incumbent.

Despite the fact that the 2026 campaign is still underway, it seems many Democrats have begun to turn their attention to the next election. How many seats might be up for grabs? Who might be taken off the board and how would that affect the seemingly eternal campaign for governor in 2030? And, perhaps most importantly, when will we hear a definitive answer from Dick Blumenthal?

Blumenthal has remained steadfastly focused on his job, ever dedicated to his grueling schedule of public appearances. But the learned senator has keen political instincts. He likely knows what the broader Connecticut political scene is fast digesting. 2028 is here, whether any of us like it or not.

Fazio’s Democrats

Back here in the present, Ryan Fazio is fighting an earnest campaign to defy history and the national political environment. Part of his effort, unsurprisingly, has included early attempts to appeal to Democrats and independents who lean to the left – attempts which have drawn a sharp rebuke from the state’s Democratic Party.

Enter “Democrats for Fazio.”

Fazio’s campaign rolled out a snappy 30-second ad featuring four supporters. Two identify themselves as Democrats. Versions of the ad posted on social media appeared with the quote “I’m a Democrat and I’m voting for Ryan Fazio” framed overhead.

The Connecticut Democratic Party pointed out that the other two supporters are both local Republican officials and accused Fazio of “faking bipartisan support” by not mentioning their partisan affiliation while including their points alongside voters who identified themselves as Democrats.

In response, Fazio leveled an accusation of his own.

“[Connecticut Democrats] are so rattled that we are winning over Democratic voters already that they are making shit up,” Fazio wrote. “This video includes two Democrats who support me and say so. There are two others in the video who do not say they are Dems and we do not say are Dems making other points in support of me.”

Matt Blumenthal, one of the state’s most prolific politicians on social media, fired back at Fazio.

“Ok buddy,” Blumenthal posted on X, with screengrabs of the two local Republican officials in the commercial framed by the “I’m a Democrat” quote.

That’s all for this week. We’ll be back next week with another edition of the Tip Sheet.