Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet, a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report written by Mike Cerulli.

This week, we are diving into a world of hypotheticals and examining a range of scenarios that could play out if Senator Chris Murphy is nominated to be U.S. Secretary of State next year.

How would CT fill a U.S. Senate vacancy? The answer is more complicated than you might think.

It’s a “what if” scenario that dances in the mind of every ambitious climber and savvy insider in the deeply-intertwined world of Connecticut politics: What if Senator Chris Murphy becomes U.S. Secretary of State in a hypothetical Harris administration next year?

It’s no secret that Murphy’s name has been in the mix for a cabinet post in the event that both he and Vice President Harris triumph over their opponents in just under a month. Reports in Axios and The Hill have shortlisted him for the role of Secretary of State. He’s a key subcommittee chair on the Foreign Relations Committee and has emerged as a leading voice on the left advocating for a progressive vision of foreign policy.

Murphy’s Republican opponent in this year’s election, Matthew Corey, has persistently characterized him as more interested in the job of Secretary of State than U.S. Senator.

Murphy has been clear that he loves the job he has and is campaigning hard to keep it. But he recently told News 8’s Dennis House, “If the President of the United States asks you to serve the country, you’re always gonna listen.”

So, what actually happens if Senator Murphy is asked to serve and his seat opens up early next year?

The Tip Sheet queried several election law experts and legislators about the state’s statutes governing U.S. Senate vacancies and they all repeated the same conclusion: If Senator Murphy vacates his seat early next year, a special election will be the only mechanism to fill his seat. Unlike most other states, Connecticut’s Governor is broadly limited in his ability to appoint an interim replacement.

The Governor, experts say, would not have the power to appoint an interim Senator in that scenario–leaving Connecticut and Chuck Schumer’s Senate Democrats down a Senator for at least 150 days before the special election is held.

“That’s definitely how it’s written and how I read it,” said Kevin Reynolds, a seasoned election law attorney who serves as counsel for the Connecticut Democratic Party.

State House Speaker Matt Ritter and State Rep. Matt Blumenthal, the chair of the legislature’s Government Administration and Elections Committee, both reiterated that understanding of the statute.

The relevant statute, Reynolds explained, requires that the Governor issue writs of election within ten days of the vacancy. In the event the vacancy happened sometime in January or February of next year, the special election would happen exactly 150 days after the writs were issued. Delegates from the most recent state conventions would meet again to pick new candidates.

Reynolds explained that the Governor only has the ability to appoint an interim Senator in a very narrow set of circumstances. Specifically, the statute allows the Governor to appoint an interim Senator if a vacancy “occurs after the municipal election in the year preceding the last year of the term of a senator or in the last year of the term of a senator.” Even in that instance, two-thirds of the state legislature would have to sign-off on the interim appointment.

“We have a rare situation in that we both don’t allow for a gubernatorial interim appointment in most situations and also have a relatively long timeline for replacing a Senator,” State Rep. Blumenthal, a Yale Law School grad who oversees much of the state’s elections-related laws, said.

The unique and somewhat convoluted arrangement of Connecticut’s system for filling a Senate vacancy was adopted in 2009. At the time, the changes were framed as a play by Democrats intended to strip then-Governor Jodi Rell of her ability to fill Senate vacancies. The changes coincided with the start of Barack Obama’s first term as President when there was some speculation that then-Senator Chris Dodd might be appointed to a role in the new administration.

While the changes may have been seen as advantaging Democrats in 2009, the circumstances today are more fraught.

In one favorable scenario for national Democrats in this year’s elections, embattled incumbents in Ohio and Montana would hold on to create an evenly divided U.S. Senate–assuming that the West Virginia seat being vacated by Senator Joe Manchin is an automatic pick-up for Republicans. In that case, a hypothetical Vice President Tim Walz would cast the tie-breaking vote and give Democrats control over the Senate. But the elevation of Murphy combined with Connecticut’s current protracted process for filling a vacant seat could upset that control.

State Rep. Blumenthal noted that dynamic and said that Connecticut’s current law “deters a President from choosing a Connecticut Senator” for a cabinet post in a closely-divided Senate.

“It’s unclear why there should be such a long timeline where Connecticut doesn’t have two Senators if a vacancy does occur,” Blumenthal said. He also hinted at an openness to changing the existing law saying, “It’s something that’s worthy of examination.”

If the balance of power in the Senate ever did come down to the intricacies of Connecticut’s Senate vacancy procedures–and that’s a pretty big “if”–the state legislature could always change the statute in a special session or at the start of next year’s regular session to allow the Governor to make a temporary appointment.

At that point, Republicans would have the opportunity to weigh in on the process and could, if they so desired, make quite a fuss about Democrats wanting to help their ambitious friend by reversing a change they were responsible for back in 2009.

If the legislature did change the existing statute, the Governor would then be in the position of appointing a temporary Senator. Under the most common system of filling vacancies, Governors appoint an interim Senator who serves until the next statewide general election at which point there would be an election to fill the balance of the former Senator’s term.

When it comes to appointing interim Senators, Governors typically choose one of two options: a placeholder who has no plans on running to keep the seat or an ambitious ally who intends to run to fill the rest of the term.

In the case of a placeholder, Governors often look to close confidants, former senior staffers, and elder statesmen. When then-Senator John Kerry became Secretary of State, Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick appointed a former chief of staff to occupy the role. New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy recently did the same to replace disgraced Senator Bob Menendez. Governor Lamont has no shortage of former chiefs of staff, including two who served as staffers for Senators.

Connecticut also has no shortage of seasoned public servants–elder statesmen and women–who might be open to capping their storied careers with a brief tenure in the Senate.

But what if Lamont signaled an openness to going the route that California Governor Gavin Newsom or Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen went when they elevated political allies intent on staying in the Senate? In 2021, Newsom appointed then-California Secretary of State Alex Padilla to replace Harris in the Senate and Pillen recently appointed his predecessor Pete Ricketts to replace Ben Sasse. Padilla ran for and retained the seat in 2022. Ricketts is running to keep his seat this year.

Who might the Governor be inclined to appoint in the event the choice was viewed as a set-up for a full term? Perhaps a close ally? A history-maker?

It is hard to divine what the political calculus would be in such a scenario, particularly if there are open races for both the Senate and Governor's office on the horizon. Many Democratic insiders also believe that the field of potential Senate candidates differs slightly from the field of gubernatorial hopefuls. Congressman Jim Himes is frequently floated by Democrats as a strong potential Senate candidate. Congresswoman Jahana Hayes’ name has also been floated by some Democrats.

One thing is for certain: the next few months promise a great deal of intrigue for those interested in the jockeying between Connecticut’s most ambitious pols.

We’ll be following all of it…

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Three More Stories To Start Your Week:

Ben Shapiro will speak at Yale this evening to mark the one year anniversary of the October 7th attacks. Shapiro is one of the most prominent voices on the American right and his public address is expected to focus on the campus protests following the October 7th attacks and Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza. Natasha Sokoloff breaks it down.

Democratic State Senate hopeful Rob Blanchard scored the endorsement of the Police Officers Association of Connecticut. Blanchard has pulled out all the stops in his bid to unseat well-known Republican incumbent Tony Hwang. Scoring the POACT endorsement is the latest of those savvy maneuvers. Kevin Rennie has the details. 

State Sen. James Maroney is readying another effort to pass AI regulations in Connecticut. The Milford Senator known for his booming laugh and interest in technology has assembled an alliance of lawmakers around the country to push for AI protections. Maroney will need all the help he can get if he is to overcome the Governor's well-known apprehension to do anything that might be viewed as stifling private sector innovation. Brian Zahn has the story.

One More Thing…

Anthony Bourdain once remarked, “there’s nothing more political than food.”

With that in mind, the author of this political newsletter doesn’t feel too bad about plugging a story entirely about food and one of the men who has helped cultivate a love of cooking the world over.

CT Mirror Human Services Report Laura Tillman and photojournalist Shahrzad Rasekh crafted this insightful look at Madison resident Jacques Pépin and his impact on Connecticut’s culinary community.

It’s a great read to start your week.

We’ll see you next week!