Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet, a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report written by Mike Cerulli.

This week, we’re breaking down the implications of new polling from Morning Consult that shows Gov. Ned Lamont’s approval rating holding steady in the 60s.

Then, we’ll take a look at labor chief Ed Hawthorne’s message for the governor – and the governor’s message to Connecticut’s business community.

PLUS, a former state representative who lost a hard-fought race last year is re-emerging on the scene in a key battleground town.

Let’s dive in…

Morning Consult: Lamont at 63% approval as he weighs re-elect

If there was any speculation that Gov. Ned Lamont’s pandemic-era approval would fade with the memory of nose swabs and Clorox-wiped groceries, a new poll from Morning Consult has proven the opposite to be true.

The poll, conducted in the waning months of 2024, shows Lamont with a 63% approval rating. That figure places Lamont among the most popular governors in the region and demonstrates unique staying power in a political environment that has seen voters drifting away from Democrats.

More than anything, the latest numbers reinforce a commonly-held belief among Connecticut political insiders: If Lamont wants a third term, he’s strongly positioned to run and win.

Labor wants Lamont to listen to them...will he?

Ed Hawthorne has a message for Ned Lamont.

Last Wednesday, the AFL-CIO chief stood before the Connecticut press and forcefully told Lamont: pass the Senate Democrats’ proposal to extend unemployment benefits to striking workers.

“If Ned Lamont wants to connect with working families, he should listen to working families,” Hawthorne said. “And that’s exactly what this bill supports.”

Intentionally or not, Hawthorne’s message for the governor mirrored comments Lamont himself made the day after Donald Trump stunned Democrats with a clean sweep of each swing state.

“Democrats lost a lot of working families,” Lamont lamented at the time. He characterized the election as a “wake-up call that we ought to be fighting for the middle class and fighting for them every day.”

In Hawthorne’s telling, Lamont could fulfill his desire to reconnect with working families by supporting the legislative priorities of organized labor. Lamont has positioned himself as an ally to labor but Hawthorne said that backing this specific legislation is particularly important given the political context of the 2024 presidential election. The election, Hawthorne argues, "spoke to the fact that working people are upset with the way that big business is treating them."

But does the Democratic governor see policies like unemployment benefits for striking workers as an effective way to reconnect with the working class? And, perhaps more importantly, does he view labor as a powerful enough ally in a potential bid for a third term that he will opt against spurning one of their signature priorities?

You may recall that the governor vetoed legislation intended to affect a similar outcome last year. At the time, the governor levelled criticism at the mechanism devised by legislative Democrats to provide aid to striking workers (calling the scheme “too cute by half”) as well as the underlying concept of the legislation.

Has he changed his thinking on this issue since last year?

“I don’t think so,” Lamont said when asked.

At CBIA’s annual summit, a warm reception and a lesson on Lamontisms

On the same day that Hawthorne and organized labor implored the governor to support the striking workers legislation, Lamont delivered the keynote address to the Connecticut Business and Industry Association’s (CBIA) annual economic summit. The gathered audience of business leaders heaped praise and applause on the governor they view as one of their own.

Lamont’s somewhat meandering remarks began with riffs on points he made during his State of the State. The rest of the address was delivered off-the-cuff in typical Lamontian fashion.

“We did a nice event yesterday – I’m just sort of winging it a bit,” Lamont mused at one point before recounting an event he did promoting artificial intelligence workforce development.

That anecdote sparked a tangent on perils and possibilities of artificial intelligence in which the governor appeared to road test a new Lamontism. Referring to some legislators backing sweeping A.I. regulations, Lamont said, “The guardrails they like are guardrails around artificial intelligence.”

After concluding a series of platitudes on the need to balance the desire for regulation with the opportunities provided by innovation, the governor paused, and then appeared to think out loud to himself.

“Um, I guess the elephant in the room is always our fiscal situation and where we are and how we’re doing, and guardrails,” Lamont said as a wry expression snuck onto his face. “I might as well talk about that a little bit.”

He then delivered a variation of a familiar refrain about his fellow governors around the country facing various forms of budget shortfalls. In his view, he’s the lucky one – flush with surplus cash steered into state coffers by the fiscal guardrails.

Then, another signature Lamont interjection.

“Ten forty-five?” Lamont quipped, apparently referring to a timer near his podium. “I can’t go on possibly that long.”

A subsequent line about the amount of pension debt paid down since the adoption of the fiscal guardrails drew a hearty applause from the CBIA crowd.

During his riff on the guardrails, Lamont reiterated his commitment to the spending cap, calling it “sacrosanct.”

On the volatility cap, Lamont made reference to “like thirty different studies out there on how they can either break, bend or tweak” the guardrails partly on the theory that the controls were arbitrarily decided back in 2017.

“That’s not right at all,” Lamont said of those arguments.

Toward the close of his address, Lamont offered another window into his thoughts on the legislative session when he implored the business community to “be at the table.”

“I see all the usual advocates there in the Capitol building,” Lamont said, without going into detail on who he was specifically referring to. “I need you there as well.”

As if answering the governor’s prayers, CBIA’s Paul Amarone stepped in front of the camera later that day to rail against the striking workers legislation.

“This comes off as a mandate on businesses,” Amarone said of the legislation. “Unemployment insurance will absolutely go up for employers throughout the state or it will be the taxpayers that will be footing the cost.”

Unions and Senate Democrats argue that the state’s unemployment trust fund will see minimal impacts from the proposed legislation.

Amarone is part of CBIA’s sizable lobbying team that is led by CEO Chris DiPentima and public policy chief Chris Davis. CBIA’s Capitol team also includes Amarone, Pete Myers, Jenna Grasso, and Grace Brangwynne. They’re pressing legislators to support their 2025 legislative agenda dubbed “Reimagine Connecticut.”

The governor’s address to the CBIA summit concluded with a question and answer period. Two of the three attendees who took the mic asked no question, instead offering praise for the governor.

“It’s like a love fest right now,” DiPentima said.

In Greenwich, Khanna’s “in your corner”...will she be on your ballot?

In a state with 169 unique municipalities, few are as full of intrigue and mystique as the town of Greenwich. Nestled on the furthest southwestern corner of Connecticut, the affluent suburb is home to some of the wealthiest people in the world – and some of the most interesting politics in the state.

The Gold Coast enclave was the site of two blockbuster races in last year’s elections. In perhaps the most closely-watched legislative race of the entire cycle, incumbent Republican State Sen. Ryan Fazio forcefully fended off a well-funded challenge from Democrat Nick Simmons. In an undercard match-up, incumbent Democratic State Rep. Rachel Khanna was ousted by Republican Tina Courpas.

Since the election, insiders in Greenwich have speculated with great interest as to what, exactly, Khanna and Simmons might do next. Both names have been floated as potential candidates for the State Senate seat that Simmons sought and Fazio continues to hold.

Last week, Khanna publicly telegraphed that she would stay in the political arena with the launch of a new newsletter, “Khanna in your corner.”

Khanna’s newsletter launch was accompanied by a direct-to-camera video posted to her social media accounts in which she promised to “share insights and updates about what’s happening in town and around Connecticut.”

Newsletters have rapidly become a valuable tool for local elected officials to maintain and build connections with keyed-in constituents. As far as local newsletters go, Khanna’s inaugural email compares favorably to the weekly messages of New Haven Alder Caroline Tanbee Smith’s “Ward 9 Newsletter” – arguably the gold standard in this very niche genre. Trust us, we’ve reviewed a lot of them.

Greenwich will be the site of one of the most closely-watched municipal elections this year. Incumbent Republican First Selectman Fred Camillo is still waiting to formally announce his intentions. Internal strife within the local GOP is just one factor that promises to inject drama into the campaign.

House Republicans join TikTok

Vinny Candelora’s House Republicans are on TikTok. They’re now the third legislative caucus to join the recently revived app (if the House Democrats have a TikTok, we couldn’t find it). 

House Republicans have a strong bullpen of Gen Z staff talent, some of whom have been given the reins of the new TikTok account. The account’s content has been sharp so far but still lags the viewership of the more established caucus accounts. 

Russell finds his new spox across the aisle

Brett Cody is Treasurer Erick Russell’s choice to lead his communications efforts. As the Tip Sheet reported late last year, Russell had been on the hunt for a new comms chief following the departure of Tyler Van Buren. Cody comes to the role after more than a decade in the private sector, though most politicos will know him from his time running comms for former Republican State Senate Minority Leader John McKinney.

Congrats to Brett and best of luck to Tyler, who is now operating under his own banner as a communications and public relations consultant.

We’ll be back next week.