Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet, a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report written by Mike Cerulli.

Happy December! We hope everyone had an enjoyable and relaxing Thanksgiving.

This week, we’re taking a look at the latest numbers from the University of New Hampshire’s Nutmeg State Poll.

What do they say about Gov. Ned Lamont’s strengths and weaknesses as we near the end of the year? And what is State Rep. Josh Elliott, Lamont’s sole Democratic challenger, saying about his showing in the poll? 

Plus, we’ll recap some notable recent campaign filings, preview a possible new entrant into the race for governor, and reflect on the many tributes pouring in for the State Rep. Kevin Ryan.

Let’s dive in…

UNH polls Lamont vs. Elliott

The crosstabs of an opinion poll can function as a sort of political Rorschach test, especially when said poll is fielded months ahead of the election in question. What you see, or don’t see, is often a function of your own preconceptions.

Does the latest poll from UNH, fielded in mid-November, portend a Democratic gubernatorial primary with an all but assured outcome or does it show a party largely ambivalent about the incumbent governor? Is that a butterfly or is it a bat? Could it be all of the above?

In the case of the UNH poll, the numbers unambiguously show two things. First, a vast majority of likely Democratic primary voters don’t know much about Josh Elliott. Second, unless that first fact changes in a very big and specific way, Ned Lamont seems well positioned to coast to a third consecutive nomination for governor.

The head-to-head matchup between Lamont and Elliott paints a very stark picture. The incumbent governor leads his progressive challenger by a whopping 48 points (55% for Lamont, 7% for Elliott) among likely Democratic primary voters with 37% undecided.

On the question of favorability, Lamont again posted a strong number among likely primary voters. 69% reported favorable views, compared to just 11% viewing Elliott in the same way. Perhaps most telling for Elliott was the revelation that 79% of respondents to that question said they didn’t know enough about him to form an opinion one way or the other.

Elliott himself was more focused on another set of results that tested Democratic enthusiasm for Lamont.

“What strikes me the most is the near utter lack of excitement for a third Lamont term,” Elliott said.

Indeed, only 20% of likely Democratic primary voters said they were “enthusiastic” about Ned Lamont’s announcement that he will seek a third term in office. 34% of those voters said they were “satisfied” about the governor’s announcement, a quarter of them said they were indifferent or neutral, and 10% said they were dissatisfied or angry.

“That will translate to a more difficult general election,” Elliott argued.

Without an enthusiastic base, Elliott reasoned, Democrats will have a hard time marshaling volunteers and ginning up other grassroots organizing efforts.

While it might be true that Lamont has an enthusiasm problem within his own party, it’s undoubtedly true that the governor appears popular with the broader electorate. 

The UNH poll found Lamont holding steady with a 55% overall job approval rating – a result that keeps him among the ranks of the nation’s most popular governors.

Deeper inside the crosstabs, it's apparent that Lamont’s impressive approval ratings are built largely on the backs of older, educated Democrats. Geographically, Lamont’s highest approval ratings come from Hartford County (72% approve) and Litchfield County (66% approve).

Notably, the governor’s worst performance geographically is in Fairfield County, where 44% of respondents approve of the job he’s doing and 50% disapprove. This result is markedly different from the numbers reported by a UNH poll fielded in mid-September which found a statistically identical overall approval rating but a net positive approval (53-33) in Fairfield County.

Future installments of UNH’s Nutmeg State Poll are expected, and the trajectory of Lamont’s numbers in vote-rich Fairfield County will no doubt be the focus of many interested parties – especially the two Republicans vying to take on Lamont in the general election.

One thing that hasn’t changed much since the September poll: Lamont is still unquestionably weakest among the youngest cohort of voters.  The November poll shows him holding a 38% approval rating among respondents ages 18-34 compared to 60% approval from respondents ages 35-49 and a 57% approval among those ages 50-64.

The governor does hold a net positive favorability among likely Democratic primary voters in the 18-34 bracket, but those numbers are much lower than his favorability among older voters. 33% of the youngest likely primary voters hold a favorable opinion of Lamont compared to 85% of likely primary voters ages 35-49, 86% ages 50-64, and 78% of the 65 and older cohort.

An abysmal 3% of respondents in the 18-34 age bracket reported feeling enthusiastic about Lamont’s announcement that he will seek a third term. That number jumps up to 7% among likely Democratic primary voters in that same age range, but still pales in comparison to the 40% of likely primary voters in the 50-64 range who reported enthusiasm.

Still, Lamont’s apparent weakness in the youth vote does not seem to be directly translating into consequential support for Elliot at this early stage of the race.

In the head-to-head question pitting Elliott against Lamont in a hypothetical primary, Elliott does perform his best among the 18-34 range. But he still comes up short by six points. 13% of young likely Democratic primary voters said they’d support Elliott, 19% said they’d support Lamont, and 69% said they’re undecided. The youth vote reported by far the highest share of “undecided” responses.

All told, the numbers reflect a rather obvious conclusion for Elliott: People really don’t know who he is…yet.

Without breakthrough moments on social media, Elliott will have to rely on old-fashioned earned media to boost his name recognition. His latest fundraising disclosures showed him bringing in about $45,000 since launching his campaign. In that same period, the two Republicans competing for their party's nomination doubled and tripled Elliott's figure. Erin Stewart’s campaign took in more than $100,000 and Ryan Fazio raised more than $150,000.

The latest UNH poll did not test general election matchups between Lamont and his two potential Republican challengers.

“He’s got a tough battle ahead, a real uphill climb,” Roy Occhiogrosso, the veteran political strategist who helped steer Dan Malloy to victory in the 2010 Democratic primary against Lamont, said of Elliott.

Just as in 2010, Lamont has said he’ll dig into his vast personal fortune to power his re-election effort.

In the view of Occhiogrosso, who has largely remained on the sidelines of gubernatorial politics since the Malloy days, head-to-head polling this far out from the potential primary is meaningless other than to gauge name recognition.

One thing Occhiogrosso did note: Lamont is in a much better position approaching the general election than Malloy was when he sought re-election in 2014.

A Quinnipiac poll fielded in mid-2013 found Malloy’s approval rating locked under 50%, with the university’s polling director characterizing his numbers as consistently “lukewarm.”

Malloy went on to win that election in a close fight, proving that subpar approval ratings do not necessarily lead to electoral doom. Lamont does not have to achieve a similar gravity-defying feat in order to secure another term.

“He’s obviously one of the most popular governors in the country,” Occhiogrosso said. “Good place to start.”

‘Tis the season: Who’s filing?

It’s the holiday season in a year preceding a statewide election. For Connecticut politicians, that means it's also the start of campaign filing season.

Incumbents with their eyes on another term and candidates hoping to win office next year have begun submitting the paperwork that makes them official candidates for re-election. Observant insiders are starting to visit the State Elections Enforcement Commission’s website with more regularity to see who’s in and who might be out.

Mark Pazniokas broke the news that Matt Ritter, the three-term House speaker, filed to run for re-election – a confirmation of his intentions to make history as the first speaker to serve four terms.

Paz also spotted the filings of two candidates vying for the open House seat vacated by Bobby Sanchez when he was sworn in as New Britain’s new mayor.

Other notable recent filings include Joe de la Cruz, the former state representative from Groton, who is now a candidate for the State Senate seat currently held by Heather Somers. The incumbent has easily dispatched four different opponents in five elections since 2016. The closest race Somers faced was in 2020, when she defeated Robert Statchen by just under five points.

John Kissel filed for re-election, putting him on course to continue his three decade run in the State Senate. Kissel is the most senior Republican and second most senior member of either party in the legislature’s upper chamber. Elected in a four-way special election in early 1993, Kissel is outranked in seniority by Senate President Marty Looney by about two months.

One more in the GOP race?

If you’re one of the avid pushers of the “refresh” button on the campaign filings page, you might want to keep an eye out for the name Betsy McCaughey. She’s the former Republican lieutenant governor of New York who now calls Greenwich home.

McCaughey has been firing off a barrage of tweets criticizing Ned Lamont and making appearances on the conservative cable channel Newsmax. Her activity is sparking rumors that she’s prepping an entrance into the race for governor. When the Tip Sheet’s author tweeted about the speculation that she’s angling to jump in and the historical anomaly of a former lieutenant governor from one state possibly serving as governor of another, McCaughey liked the post. 

In response to a tweet by an anonymous Connecticut conservative urging her to run, McCaughey responded by urging the owner of the account to reach out to her at an email with the domain name “Betsy2026.com.”

A search for that domain name did not return a working webpage and a search for the domain’s availability revealed it has already been reserved.

Replying to another tweet from a user inquiring about her interest in the race, McCaughey said she’s “eyeing that battle.”

Remembering Kevin Ryan

Throughout the week, heartfelt tributes honoring the life of State Rep. Kevin Ryan have poured in from across the state and country.

Ryan passed away last weekend.

In a display of Ryan’s lasting legacy, the National Council of State Legislatures posted a message of remembrance – noting that Ryan is immediate past president of the Council of State Governments.

“I know he really loved the work that CSG and NCSL did together to strengthen institutions and promote bipartisanship.” State Sen. Bob Duff, the State Senate majority leader and vice president of NCSL, said. “Even coming from a small town in eastern Connecticut, he was able to bring his perspective to discussions.”

Speaker Ritter and House Majority Leader Jason Rojas jointly remembered Ryan as “a steady hand on the dias, a trusted mentor, and a loyal friend.”

The two House leaders also noted his fierce devotion to the communities he served: Montville, Ledyard, and, as Ryan pronounced it, “Naah-tch.”

That’s all for this week. We’ll be back next week with another edition of the Tip Sheet!