Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet, a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report written by Mike Cerulli.

We’ve got a grab basket of newsy tidbits for you this week, starting with the latest from the gubernatorial campaign trail.

Plus, a prominent voice offers his thoughts on the race for state treasurer and a key Republican group eyes a potentially competitive State Senate race.

Let’s dive in…

Is this thing on?

If you’ve been looking around wondering where all the October action is, don’t worry. You’re not alone.

The prevailing mood from more than a dozen Tip Sheet sources on both sides of the aisle has been one of relative stasis with exactly a week until the start of early voting. None of those sources who are currently working on campaigns wanted to be named, mostly because they don’t want to be seen as promoting a sense of apathy. But all of them remarked on what they view as a noticeable lack of high-pitched exchanges and headline-grabbing developments in the final few weeks of campaigning.

“It sort of seems ‘business as usual’ from an earned media perspective,” Liz Kurantowicz, a veteran Republican operative, said in a recent News 8 podcast.

One well-placed Republican campaign source echoed that sentiment, describing the tone of the statewide landscape as “quiet.” A Democrat in Ned Lamont’s orbit offered a similar assessment, saying the governor’s operation has adopted a “steady as she goes” mentality.

To be clear, the gubernatorial candidates have not let up on campaigning. Both men are actively criss-crossing the state to press flesh. On the airwaves, Lamont continues to hammer at Ryan Fazio while reinforcing messaging around his record. Fazio has kept up the fight, too. In his television commercials, the GOP nominee is relentlessly beating the drum on affordability issues while he wages a two-front war to sink the governor’s favorability rating and increase his own name recognition. On social media, Fazio has leaned into short-form video – generally outpacing Lamont in that realm. 

There is also no shortage of interesting races for the state legislature nor is there a lack of news coming out of Washington to gin up the politically engaged.

But the earnest efforts of the gubernatorial campaigns and their down-ballot allies have done little to quell whispers among political insiders who suggest that Connecticut just doesn’t have a very interesting roster of races this year. Many of those insiders fear that more casual voters have simply tuned out.

“I talk to people all the time and they’re like, ‘I’ve turned off the news,’” Joe Aresimowicz, the former House speaker, said.

Perhaps the electorate’s attention has been monopolized by races outside Connecticut’s borders. One young Democratic operative suggested to the Tip Sheet that social media algorithms have a natural tendency to funnel the politically inclined toward the most competitive races nationwide – meaning even Connecticut voters engaging with news about the midterms might not be seeing content focused on their home state. In other words, the most enthusiastic Democrats might be seeing more James Talarico and less Ned Lamont.

In that vein, Kurantowicz suggested that some of the insider chirping about a low energy election can be attributed to the absence of any buzzy federal races this year. In the last two state elections, the fight over the 5th Congressional District attracted national media attention and undeniably injected an enhanced sense of competitiveness into the state’s political scene. Neither party has given the frontline treatment to the 5th District this year.

The start of early voting next week will provide a window into whether or not the vibes within Connecticut’s political class reflect a broader reality.

Sonnenfeld: Russell has shown “impressive diligence”

Sean Scanlon is playing hockey in his basement.

Susan Bysiewicz is railing against Amazon.

William Tong is walking very purposefully down the street.

Ah, yes. The underticket. A couple weeks ago, we took a look at the first few commercials from the candidates for the constitutional offices. Those ads keep on coming. This week, we’re zeroing in on the race for state treasurer.

Both of the candidates – incumbent Democrat Erick Russell and Republican challenger Fred Wilms – are using their commercials to present their own narratives of Connecticut’s recent financial history. Russell cites the record run of budget surpluses as evidence of an effective turnaround job. Wilms’ ad criticizes the management structure of Connecticut’s multibillion dollar pension funds.

Wilms cites the recommendations and research of two Yale University experts who urged the state to decentralize investment decisions away from the treasurer’s office and into the hands of an oversight board. The former state lawmaker from Norwalk paints Russell as a king with unchecked power over vast piles of public money.

The Yale research at the core of Wilms’ ad was authored by Professor Jeff Sonnenfeld and his research director, Steven Tian. Sonnenfeld is considered a leading voice on organizational leadership and corporate governance. He is a frequent commentator on CNBC and he hosts executive summits which have drawn the likes of Jamie Dimon, Joe Biden, Janet Yellen, Ray Dalio, Steven Spielberg, Michael Dell, and Pete Buttigieg.

Sonnenfeld is also a keen observer of Connecticut politics, weighing in on the race for governor and staying in close contact with key power players. He maintains a legendary personal email distribution list, sending lengthy bits of analysis to recipients ranging from Ned Lamont to the author of your favorite local newsletter.

On Sunday, Sonnenfeld offered the Tip Sheet his thoughts on the race for treasurer.

“Yes, we were harshly critical of the terrible hand Erick Russell had been dealt through several decades of terrible investing and inadequate governance,” Sonnenfeld said. “In the last four years, however, Treasurer Russell has shown remarkable transparency in acknowledging these problems and impressive diligence in addressing the solution.”

Sonnenfeld went on to praise Connecticut’s recent pension fund returns and note that “there’s still more to be done, but they are on the right path and making substantial progress.”

Zyn it to win it?

Today, we you the latest dispatches from the frontlines of political Zyn-fluencing.

Regular Tip Sheet readers will be familiar with the fact that this newsletter’s author has a particular affinity for Zyn nicotine pouches, not just as a performance enhancer for writers but also as a totem for a certain brand of politics that’s been embraced by candidates on both sides of the aisle.

In the strange machinery of American politics in 2026, a tiny pouch of nicotine has somehow become a certificate of cultural authenticity, especially for those politicians seeking to reach the elusive pocket of young, working class male voters.

Take, for example, the centrist Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.

For the unfamiliar, Gluesenkamp Perez is one of a handful of Democratic members of Congress running in a district won by Donald Trump in 2024. She is a strange political animal: a Democrat with grease under her fingernails, a pickup truck in the driveway, and a maverick streak that has put her at odds with party leaders who are praying she holds her Washington state district.

Gluesenkamp Perez was until recently selling on her campaign website a container for Zyn cans with the words “Marie Glue-ZYN-Kamp Perez” affixed to the front.

Zyn’s parent company, the Connecticut-based Philip Morris International, apparently asked her to stop using the Zyn branding.

The use of Zyn as a validating symbol of everyman politics is not unique to Gluesenkamp Perez. At least two Republican gubernatorial candidates mounting challenges in blue states have invoked Zyn as a policy issue. 

In Oregon, Christine Drazan, the GOP’s choice for governor, invoked Zyn when attacking incumbent Democrat Tina Kotek in a televised debate. Oregon is one of several Democratic-led states with a tax on nicotine products like Zyn.

“Let’s go through the list,” Drazan said during a riff on taxation. “There’s a Zyn tax. There’s an insurance tax. There is a paycheck tax. There’s a car tax. On and on and on and on.”

In Massachusetts, the self-funding Republican nominee Mike Minogue garnered more than 800,000 views and 30,000 likes on an Instagram post vowing to overturn the state’s ban on flavored Zyns.

Here in Connecticut, the Young Republicans have gotten in on the action. They’re currently offering a $40 set of golf gear with the mantra “Rippin’ Zyn and Ownin’ Libs.” Democrats in the Connecticut legislature have mulled a similar excise tax but declined to take any action on it.

Speaking of the Young Republicans…

Digital ads furnished by the Connecticut Young Republicans are set to kick off this morning. The group is providing reinforcement to Jeff Gordon, the incumbent state senator whose sprawling eastern Connecticut district has become the venue for a sneakily competitive race.

Democrat Ethan Werstler has attracted attention on both sides of the aisle for the fight he’s putting up. Werstler previously ran against Kurt Vail and has strong support among the Young Democrats of Connecticut.

Play ball! AFSCME trounces AFT; linemen take down “gasholes” at annual labor softball benefit

It was a battle of labor unions at Dunkin’ Park. The annual softball exhibition saw some lopsided matchups, with the “Green Machine” of AFSCME Council 4 running up the score against AFT Connecticut’s “Professionals.” Council 4 won 19-1. Connecticut AFL-CIO chief Ed Hawthorne suited up with the Green Machine for their commanding win.

The United Illuminating linemen of UWUA Local 470-1 bested their brethren at USW Local 12000, which represents Southern Connecticut Gas workers. The “HotSticks” of Local 470-1 beat the “Gasholes” of Local 12000 10-2.

Proceeds from the event benefit the Workers Memorial Day Scholarship Fund.

Just wait ‘til next year when the local television unions come to play…

That’s all for this week. We’ll be back next week with another edition of the Tip Sheet!