Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet, a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report written by Mike Cerulli.

This week, we’re taking a look back at the first week of what will likely become a fight for the Democratic nomination for governor in 2026. Josh Elliott made things official with a campaign launch last Monday.

What did we learn about a potential Elliott v. Lamont race?

Let’s dive in…

The first week of the ‘26 Democratic gubernatorial contest

The two events were separated by just a few hours and a handful of miles.

In New Haven, the Monday morning sun had already heated the pavement on Ivy Street by the time Gov. Ned Lamont sprung out of the front passenger-side seat of the black SUV that ferries him around the state.

This particular event was billed by the governor’s office as “an update” on a pilot program that provides grants for housing construction and energy efficiency retrofits. A small cadre of legislators and the state’s housing commissioner joined the governor for a tour and then a press conference behind a makeshift lectern in front of a residence. Mayor Justin Elicker, the Elm City’s bookish leader, bounded in a few minutes late.

Everything about the event was standard. The standard entourage: his body man, a small state police detail, a comms staffer or two, and some locals. The standard set of subjects: a ceremonial bill signing, a celebration of some state grant, a ribbon cutting of a development seeded with state funds, and so on…

By the time Elicker slipped into the group behind the microphones, the “update” was being delivered in the form of an impromptu beat poetry performance. The poet was Leticia Colon de Mejias, the founder of Energy Efficiencies Solutions and a prolific children’s book author, offering praise and encouragement to Lamont.

The governor listened intently to the performance. He stood with his sunglasses on, leaning slightly on the car parked in the driveway behind him. Typical Lamont. Calm, half a grin on his face, nodding when a speaker acknowledges a point he’d like to bring up in his own remarks.

He engaged in a bit of banter with the poet.

“Leticia, you’re incredible!” Lamont said.

“I been telling you, Ned, I been telling you!” She replied.

“You have been telling me, with some frequency!” Lamont said, letting out a loud laugh.

Then, he tried his hand at some more comedy, ribbing one of the favored targets of his humor.

“The utility guys say we need more energy in this state,” Lamont said. “Just plug you in and good things happen in this neighborhood!”

Standing on that sidewalk under the summer sun, it was virtually impossible to tell that this was a governor who was about to be on the receiving end of a rhetorical broadside by a member of his own party.

A short distance away in Hamden, State Rep. Josh Elliott was preparing for a press conference of his own. He was to formally announce his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for governor. It is a contest in which Elliott is technically alone but could soon include Lamont.

When Lamont did take a few off-topic questions from the press on the topic of Elliott’s impending campaign launch event, he mostly reverted to the line he gives whenever he takes flak from within the sphere of people he normally counts as allies.

“We’re all about affordability, opportunity,” Lamont said. “That’s what we’re doing right here.”

“We’ve doubled down on municipal aid – done more on education, environment and housing than ever before,” Lamont continued.

If he’s even the least bit concerned about the prospect of a primary, he didn’t show it. He took no swipes, even backhanded ones, directly at Elliott. It was all about his own record, the things he’s done and appears intent on continuing to do.

Perhaps this was part of a strategy cooked up with Blanchard and the kitchen cabinet. Or perhaps it was just standard-issue Ned.

The governor’s post-press conference gaggle lasted about four minutes.

With that, it was back to the SUV. Onto the next lunch, the next diet ginger ale, the next ribbon cutting, the next phone call to a trusted confidant.

There are those who have read a slight increase in the governor’s rigor lately.

He’s got more pep in his step, one senior legislator said.

He’s doing more events than usual, says another Ned watcher.

His outreach to local Democratic Party leaders has picked up, multiple such leaders have told the Tip Sheet. Lamont himself said not to read too much into that.

He might not be an official candidate, but he is most certainly ramping up a campaign, all those insiders insist.

A couple hours later that day, it was Elliott’s turn to face the public. Unlike the governor, Elliott is most certainly an official candidate. But is he running a real campaign?

That’s the question on the minds of many and one that Elliott himself sought to address.

The Hamden Democrat began his day by posting a video formally announcing his intention to contend for his party’s gubernatorial nomination.

The video opened with a smiling Elliott petting his two dogs. He launched into a map-trotting outline of the thesis of his new campaign.

“Connecticut has been severely underinvesting in its public education, public services and municipalities,” Elliott said. “All while the regressive, backwards tax structure here in Connecticut places the costs of our unmet needs on the backs of working families.”

Reaction to that video bounced around the group chats and direct message inboxes of the people who pay closest attention to these sorts of things – the ones Elliott appeared to be directly addressing with lines about educators, healthcare workers, and “housing advocates.”

Inevitably, one of the first observations the political chattering class made was how much Elliott’s video resembled the ones that propelled New York Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani to notoriety and victory in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary.

Gone are the days of horizontally-filmed launch ads with soaring music and emotional voice-overs by the candidates who were swept into office during the anti-Trump fervor of the president’s first term. Today, the format de jour is vertical, made for TikTok and Instagram. The speech is more frank, delivered directly to the camera with less consultant-y rhetoric. That’s the ideal Elliott was aiming for with his video.

Quick cuts, zoom-ins, hand motions to emphasize points about taxation, and direct turns to the camera are not original to Mamdani. But he brought the craft to such a level that those aspiring to wage a campaign in the Mamdani mold have not been able to resist taking a swing, consciously or unconsciously, at imitating his form.

At his press conference, Elliott’s performance was less infused with the inspiration of Mamdani and more focused on that question that now hangs over him: How serious is this guy?

By outward appearance, it seemed he is indeed serious about this. The press conference had all the trappings of a bona fide campaign.

The normally casual Elliott had donned a suit and tie. Campaign signs adorned with a slickly-designed logo were held by supporters and staff. Jenn Lepore, a Cromwell attorney who is in a relationship with Elliott, was by the representative’s side the whole time, beaming as he gave his remarks.

His speech hit all the points from his video: an unfair tax system, working families in need of help, a status quo that hasn't done enough.

For those looking for signs that Elliott’s campaign is perhaps not as serious as he insists, the responses he gave during the Q&A portion of the event might have provided them some new fodder.

How would he go about making the wealthy pay more? Would he institute a new capital gains surcharge? If so, how large would that charge be? 

Elliott said he’d focus on those making more than a million dollars annually. As far as specific numbers on that surcharge idea…TBD. Some low, single-digit percentage, perhaps.

Elliott also said he supports adding more income brackets at the highest end of the state’s tax scale to capture more revenue. No, he isn’t worried about a migration of high earners out of the state. That’s a myth, Elliott said, citing some research that backs him up. As for the specifics of the income tax structure he’d put in place, again…TBD.

There was no catchy list of specific policies at the center of this campaign launch – no Connecticut version of Mamdani’s “free and fast buses” or Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s “two cent” tax on ultramillionaires.

In the absence of specifics on a tax plan, Lamont was able to preemptively respond with a platitude of his own when asked whether he’d entertain any future tax increases.

“For some people, a tax increase is a first resort,” Lamont said before Elliott's event. “For me, it's an absolute last resort.”

In another direct-to-camera video posted after his press conference, Elliott again reiterated that yes, he is serious about his campaign.

“What I would say to all those things is, yes I am serious,” Elliott said. “Yes, it’s about the message.”

All of the above for Josh Elliott.

And what about that question of how far he’s willing to take this?

He wants to be on Row A. He’s going to be on Row A, he declared. He didn't go into further details on exactly what that meant.

On his Sunday show, Dennis House tried a different angle to get a more concrete answer to that question.

“Deep down, do you want to be governor or do you want Ned Lamont to be a more progressive governor?” House asked.

“Both things can be true,” Elliott replied.

Speaking with House, Elliott also preempted some of the other questions he knows he’ll get while running a campaign to the left of the incumbent.

“I’m not a socialist, I’m not an anarchist, I’m a capitalist,” Elliott said.

If last week gave any indication of what a Lamont versus Elliott nominating fight could look like, one clear takeaway is that the battleground issues have yet to be defined. Elliott has honed in on the tax issue but in the absence of specific proposals to contrast with Lamont, it might be difficult to make an affirmative case for the Democrats to switch horses. 

Another thing that still isn’t clear is whether or not Elliott can capture the social media momentum that is likely necessary to overcome Lamont’s name recognition and overwhelming paid media advantage. The 40-year old’s first video was a credible showing. He posted another TikTok overlaid with a viral sound from the popular reality show “Love Island.”

“This week, a hot new bombshell enters the villa,” the narrator said while Elliott walked in slow motion with his dogs.

Neither the “Love Island” TikTok or the initial campaign launch managed to garner any meaningful virality…but this ballgame is still early innings.

As for Lamont’s willingness to embrace the language of memes…would he start shooting those vertical, short-form videos any time soon?

“I gotta learn how to do that, buddy,” he told the Tip Sheet’s author.

Three more reads to start your week…

Anyone have a lucky weekend on the slots? Foxwoods Resort Casino notched $30 million in slot revenue last month. Of that, the State of Connecticut collected nearly $8 million, according to the gaming news outlet Yogonet. Read their report here.

Rennie x2…

The South Windsor scribe has been on a tear recently. He reported last week on a brawl at a New Britain nominating convention. You have to see the video to believe it. Watch it here. Rennie also penned a follow-up to his original reporting on former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin’s interest in running for the congressional seat currently held by Rep. John Larson.

“The Smarts of this CT candidate are what people are talking about,” Rennie wrote.

In memoriam: Connecticut mourns the death of Bill Gerber

A celebration of the life of Bill Gerber, the former first selectman of Fairfield, will be held on Friday at Sacred Heart University. Gerber died last week from complications related to a brain tumor, according to his family.

You can read a reflection on the life and public service of Bill Gerber here.

We’ll be back next week with another Tip Sheet.