Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet!

The Tip Sheet is a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report written by Mike Cerulli.

Every Monday, we dive into the latest news and offer analysis you might not hear elsewhere in Connecticut media.

This week, we’re taking a look at how a Connecticut-based company and an effort led by Sen. Dick Blumenthal are impacting the Presidential race. We’ll also recap the back-and-forth over the scuttled three-state wind energy agreement and dive deep on Kamala Harris’ post-debate memes.

Let’s dive in.

Blumenthal’s War On Zyn Takes Center Stage In Presidential Race

A Connecticut-based company is at the center of an attempt by the former President Donald Trump to reach a much-talked-about portion of the electorate: young men.

Leading political figures randing from Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, to Chris Murphy have taken a keen interest in the very real dilemmas facing America’s young men: social isolation, declining educational attainment, and a general malaise that has fueled alarming suicide rates and political extremism.

For the Trump campaign, this portion of the electorate represents a key opportunity to cut into Democrats’ share of the youth vote. In an election that could be decided by razor-thin margins, any incremental gains could be decisive. Polling indicates that Gen Z men are more conservative than their millennial counterparts–a shift driven in part by a cohort of right-leaning social media influencers with large audiences of young men. Trump has sought to make common cause with many of those influencers, most notably the Nelk Boys.

Last week, Trump invited Kyle Forgeard, the de facto leader of the Nelk Boys, on stage at a campaign rally in Las Vegas. Forgeard and the Nelk Boys rose to fame through viral prank videos and vlogs posted to their YouTube channel. The sprawling Nelk empire now includes a successful hard seltzer brand and several new media properties covering all manner of cultural curiosities. Trump and Vance have both been guests on the Nelk podcast, Full Send.

Standing on stage with Trump, Forgeard delivered a full-throated endorsement of the former President.

“We need Trump back and we need him back bad,” Forgeard said from the podium.

Then, he held up a small circular container instantly recognizable to young men everywhere.

“One more thing,” Forgeard shouted as he held the container up. “Governor Tim Walz, he put a 95% tax on Zyn. We gotta get that removed, President Trump!”

For those that aren’t familiar, Zyn is a brand of nicotine pouches that has found a rabid fanbase of young men. For young men, Zyns are ubiquitous. In any friend group of twenty-something guys, it’s a safe bet that at least one person is packing a Zyn or has a pack sitting in their car.

So, where does Connecticut enter this story?

Zyn is produced by a subsidiary of Stamford-based Philip Morris International. The product has drawn the ire of Sen. Dick Blumenthal. Citing their popularity with younger users and the risk of nicotine addiction, Blumenthal has called for Zyn to be removed from shelves pending a regulatory review. Philip Morris has promoted Zyn, which is tobacco-free, as an alternative to cigarette smoking.

Blumenthal has been a leader among a group of Democrats, including Walz and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who champion strict regulations, taxes, and even outright bans of the product.

For those familiar with Blumenthal's decades-long crusade against big business, criticism of Zyn might seem like par for the course. After all, Blumenthal is well known for his role in the national tobacco settlement of 1998. Back then, he showed no fear locking horns with the powerful tobacco industry.

Today, politicians like Blumenthal, Schumer, and Walz might not fully grasp the type of hornet’s nest they are kicking with their fight against Zyn. Not only are they squaring off with the financial and political power of Philip Morris, they are also stoking the flames of the cultural movement that currently occupies the center of American conservatism.

The Democratic attacks on Zyns have prompted outcry from conservatives and conservative-adjacent figures like Forgeard and the Nelk Boys. For the Zyn faithful on the right, those little pouches represent a lot more than just an extra kick to go along with a morning cup of coffee.

“I use it every second I’m awake,” Tucker Carlson once said on an episode of the Nelk Boys’ Full Send podcast. Carlson described how he believes nicotine is positively tied to sexual performance and mental acuity. He stated directly that he believes Democratic efforts to regulate Zyn are an attack on the traditional masculine values that modern American conservatives have become fixated on defending.

For Carlson, Forgeard, and the legions of Nelk fans, using Zyns can function as a proxy for a cultural identity centers individuality and embodies the “Come and take it” ethos of conservatism tailored for Gen Z consumption.

Of course, banning Zyns certainly isn’t something that any voter is listing as a top issue, but Trump’s appearances with the Nelk Boys and embrace of the underlying cultural currents they represent shows the seriousness of the former President’s appeal to Gen Z men.

Should Blumenthal or other Democrats decide to press the issue further between now and Election Day, it’s likely they’d elicit a response from the former President’s newest surrogates.

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Blowin’ in the Wind…

A series of headlines from in and around Connecticut in the last week painted a very stark picture about the political problem facing Governor Ned Lamont and his Democratic allies as they face calls to simultaneously lower energy costs and address the climate crisis.

“Are Healey and Lamont still in sync on offshore wind?” the CommonWealth Beacon of Massachusetts asked.

“CT seems to be dragging its feet on offshore wind investment” Fox 61 wrote.

“CT opts out–for now–of offshore wind, raising concerns about motives” read a CT Mirror headline.

At the core of all those headlines is Connecticut’s conspicuous absence from what was supposed to be a three-state pact with Massachusetts and Rhode Island to purchase offshore wind energy.

The prevailing narrative that has emerged in the past week describes a Governor hesitant to enter into a new agreement for expensive wind energy at a time when Republicans are attempting to convert widespread ratepayer outrage into political capital with an election just about 50 days away.

Lamont has publicly stated that he has concerns over the cost of wind power and is sensitive to the pain felt by ratepayers who are still reeling from the sticker shock of this month’s bills. According to reporting from the Mirror’s Jan Ellen Spiegel and the Courant’s Edmund Mahony, Lamont remains contemplative about the prospect of future wind power purchases.

A possible deal between Connecticut and Massachusetts that would involve mutual purchases of nuclear and wind power is being discussed, the Courant reports. No firm commitments on such a deal, which would take years to go into effect, have been announced.

For Lamont, a wait-and-see approach might not be the worst thing in the world if he is attempting to balance political interests with his stated desire to “triple down” on carbon-free power.

This fall’s election will provide a testbed for the Republican theory that anger over unexpectedly high bills will translate into down-ballot defections in key legislative seats.

For Republicans, positive proof of that theory would almost certainly include a successful defense of their three most vulnerable State Senate seats–Ryan Fazio’s seat based in Greenwich, Tony Hwang’s seat based in Fairfield, and Lisa Seminara’s seat which spans from Avon to Norfolk. 

Pick-ups in key State House seats would also send a strong message that the cost of energy is at the forefront of voters’ decision-making processes. House Republicans have a keen interest in several offensive opportunities including Jen Dzen’s race to unseat Jaime Foster in the 57th District, Joe Canino’s campaign to take on Michelle Cook in the 65th District, and Tina Courpas’ efforts to win back the 149th District from Rachel Khanna.

But if Republican momentum fails to materialize in November, might the Governor feel more empowered to act aggressively on carbon-free energy? Moreover, might he also start to feel pressure from environmental advocacy groups as the start 2025 session comes into sharper focus?

Any pressure from within the Democratic coalition might take on added weight as the Governor nears a public decision on whether or not to seek a third term. At the same time, continued public outrage would also provide ample political fodder to be used against the Governor in a hypothetical 2026 re-election campaign.

Recently, the European Union’s climate change monitor reported that Earth’s daily global average temperature reached a new record high in July. 

That news stands as a stark reminder that the reality of climate change does not stop at any state line or national border. What does change at state lines and national borders, it seems, are the political incentives and collective will to act.

Trump and Kamala’s Post-Debate Meme War–What Can CT Politicos Learn?

A few weeks ago, the Tip Sheet broke down the meme-fueled phenomenon that helped power the launch of Kamala Harris’ Presidential campaign.

This week, we thought it would be fun to dive back into the world of campaign memery in the wake of last Tuesday’s blockbuster debate and analyze any takeaways that might be useful for Connecticut’s ambitious pols.

Of course, the most viral moment of the debate was undoubtedly former President Trump’s recitation of unfounded claims that Haitian migrants were abducting and eating pets in Springfield, Ohio.

On TikTok, one of the most popular post-debate trends involved users posting videos of their own pets seemingly reacting to Trump’s wild and baseless claims. The most widely-viewed posts using the Trump sound bites have been seen well over one hundred million times–easily doubling the number of people who tuned in to watch the debate on television.

When it comes to Vice President Harris’ online presence during and after the debate, the campaign continued to push the boundaries of what a Presidential candidate can post.

In a post shortly after the debate, the Harris campaign’s TikTok account compared the split screen contrast of Trump and Harris to the popular “soyjak” versus “Chad” meme.

If you don’t understand what any of that means, don’t worry. We’ve got you covered.

The meme the Harris team was playing off of portrays a strong, confident character (known as a “Chad”) staring down a weaker, more submissive character called a “soyjak”. The Harris-as-Chad framing was subversive in terms of both gender and ideology. The Chad/soyjak meme (and a myriad of offshoots) is something heavily utilized by right-wing posters online–in many cases framing Trump as the ultimate Chad. In using this particular format, Harris was essentially hijacking a popular right-wing meme to capitalize on widespread sentiments that she had outperformed Trump on the debate stage.

The universe of Chad, wojak, and soyjak memes are actually more than a decade old (they are so prolific that they have their own Wikipedia pages) but they have remained relevant to a certain crowd of young, very online folks. The conscious choice to engage with that crowd shows a willingness 

The Harris campaign has also engaged with a number of other TikTok-based trends and concepts like “hopecore” and having “infinite aura.” Sure, it probably strikes some people as cringe. But it's certainly proving to be effective at capturing the attention of a segment of the electorate that is simply not reachable through traditional media platforms: young people.

So, what can Connecticut pols learn from Harris’ success? For starters, basically no one in Connecticut politics on either side of the aisle is even attempting to chase the cutting edge of internet culture in the way that Harris is. Having a regular presence on social media is one thing, but engaging with the cultural zeitgeist in a way that garners a broader, younger audience is another.

If Connecticut’s high-profile politicians wanted to, they could empower the Gen Z members of their staff to create interesting and compelling content that marries the principal’s own identity with current trends.

With an election right around the corner and a fresh class of fall semester interns eager to make an impact, now is as good a time as any...

We'll see you next week!