Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet, a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report written by Mike Cerulli.

This week, we’re breaking down some last-minute action in the 5th Congressional District and recapping a rather amusing showdown between the gubernatorial candidates that played out over the weekend.

Let’s dive in…

Last-minute action in the 5th District

The last-minute, six-figure influx of cash into the 5th Congressional District is a far cry from the millions spent in the two previous races for the western Connecticut seat, but the race has quietly become the venue for behind-the-scenes action that could help define the future of the state’s Republican establishment.

In filings made public last week, two outside groups disclosed modest spending in the final days of the race. SEAL the Deal PAC, a group supporting GOP candidate and retired Navy SEAL Chris Shea, spent just under $50,000 on ads attacking incumbent Jahana Hayes. Pro-Choice Majority Action spent $250,000 against Shea.

You can watch the pro-Shea ad here and the pro-Hayes ad here. Plugged-in politicos will notice that the pro-Shea ad borrows research first thrown into the public arena during George Logan’s 2024 campaign.

The late timing of the spending illustrates the relatively sleepy state of competition in the 5th District. Elections forecasters, namely the Cook Political Report, do not view the race as competitive. Cook has rated the district “Solid D.”

Still, the Shea campaign is borrowing from their candidate’s frogman ethos – fighting on in the face of challenging odds.

Perhaps the more intriguing than the bout between the candidates is the shadow conflict playing out behind the scenes. Shea’s campaign is led in part by Brock Weber, the former Erin Stewart loyalist and longtime Republican strategist. Weber is widely understood to be circling a bid to be the next chairman of the state Republican Party. Ben Proto, the current chair, is slated to be in office until next summer. But recent speculation in GOP circles has centered on Proto’s apparent desire to be elected national Republican committeeman – a move that would mean he’d have to leave his current position.

Should incumbent national committeeman John Frey leave his post for any reason (say, an appointment to a job in the Trump administration) a snap election would be called to replace him and Weber could have his shot at a new job before next year’s scheduled election.

To be clear, talk of a snap election is mostly hypothetical at this point. The Republican rumor mill is infamously fractious, especially when people associated with Erin Stewart are involved. But it is clear that a succession plan for Proto, who has been in office for nearly six years, is being actively discussed. The fight to replace him is already opening up barely-closed rifts between Stewart’s former team and those in the party who have long opposed her.

8 days to go. Buckle up.

The great tailgating war of 2026

The smell of hot dogs, hamburgers, and chicken wings wafted around the vast parking lots outside Rentschler Field as the sun retreated below the horizon Friday evening. Something else was in the air, too: the political rivalry between Ned Lamont and Ryan Fazio.

Fresh off the debate stage, Fazio and Lamont each marshaled their supporters to tailgate Friday’s showdown between UConn and UMass – a rivalry that also attracted the attention of Barstool Sport’s boss Dave Portnoy.

Portnoy and his crew set up shop right outside the stadium to stage their weekly college football livestream. As we’ve noted before in the Tip Sheet, Portnoy is perhaps Connecticut’s most famous cultural pitchman. He helped boost Connecticut pizza to national renown, handing a series of massive marketing assists to local joints with his viral “one bite” reviews. On Friday, Portnoy sought to give a similar boost to UConn’s independent football program.

A short distance from the Barstool stage, Fazio supporters occupied about a dozen parking spaces, lining them with campaign signs and pumping out barbecue to fans who wanted to catch a glimpse of the Republican candidate. The grub was furnished by a cadre of veteran tailgaters from Bristol, including the father of Hannah Lemek, Fazio’s communications director.

Fazio’s campaign had promoted the tailgate with the tagline “Ryan at the Rent.” The Lamont team apparently took notice and conjured up their own tailgate in the next lot over.

The governor’s campaign didn’t have quite as large of a footprint or as intricate of a grilling setup as his Republican challenger. The Bristol crew arrived with a large propane grill, a flattop griddle, and an expansive spread of food laid out in serving trays. Underneath a branded tent, Lamont’s supporters chowed down on burgers and dogs cooked up on a single griddle. Despite a clear difference in scale, the Tip Sheet’s author can report that the culinary offerings at both tailgates were commendable. Special props must be given to the homemade hot sauce cooked up by a Fazio supporter and the burgers churned out by Lamont’s volunteer grillman.

As far as vibes and energy, both campaigns also made comparable showings. Fazio rolled in shortly before 6:00 PM and was immediately surrounded by fans seeking selfies. He tossed a pigskin with supporters, throwing a respectable spiral. Asked who he thought might win a game of beer pong between him and the governor, the former president of Northwestern University’s chapter of Sigma Phi Epsilon figured he probably would come out on top and suggested giving the governor “a couple cup advantage” as a handicap.

Not to be outdone, Lamont tried his hand at the pong table upon arrival to his tailgate. He landed his first throw, utilizing a rare underhanded shot which drew a loud cheer from campaign staff. Opposite Lamont at the pong table was Mitchell Marks, a field organizer and member of the South Windsor Board of Education who recently graduated from UConn.

During a live television interview with your favorite newsletter writer, Lamont tossed a beanbag toward an ESPN-branded cornhole board. The governor missed his throw and then slapped your correspondent on the back in an apparent attempt to foil the return shot.

“Oh, bring out the violin,” Lamont quipped when your correspondent joked about the interference.

You can see clips from the tailgates here. The two candidates did not overlap.

Inside the stadium, Fazio sat with supporters and staff in Section 140. The steady stream of selfies that began at the tailgate continued, with fans clogging up the stairs next to Fazio as they angled for photos and  handshakes. One young supporter was wearing what appeared to be a homemade t-shirt emblazoned with the popular and somewhat vulgar nickname for showdowns between UConn and UMass. Fazio’s staff snickered as the fan chatted with the candidate. Passing words of encouragement were offered as Fazio exited the stadium after halftime.

Lamont took in most of the first quarter from the field. He shared a hug and a few words with Dan and Andrea Hurley before kickoff, then circled around the UConn bench and waved to fans. Lamont’s reception was mostly positive, with fans shouting out to the governor as he passed below them.

“Great job at the debate!”

“We love you, Ned!”

A few others hurled expletives.

The Huskies trounced the Minutemen 35-16.

Debate time: How to watch the final debate between Lamont and Fazio

Be sure to tune in tomorrow night for the final showdown between the gubernatorial candidates. News 8 and the Connecticut Conference of Municipalities will be hosting a live debate at Mohegan Sun.

You can find all the details on how to watch the debate here.

That’s all for this week. We’ll be back next week with another edition of the Tip Sheet!