Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet, a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report written by Mike Cerulli.

Happy New Year!

This week, we’re taking a look at one of the narratives that will likely shape the new year: young politicos looking to usher in generational change.

Plus, two other races you should keep your eye on as we enter 2026.

Let’s dive in…

Sabin’s move could portend a generational fight in ‘26

The newsletter landed in inboxes on New Year’s Day, minutes before the start of New Haven’s annual inaugural ceremonies at Fair Haven High School. The author was Eli Sabin, a 25-year-old member who was re-elected in November to represent a Board of Alders ward that hooks through parts of downtown and into the East Rock neighborhood.

“I won’t be taking office for the new Board of Alders term that starts today,” Sabin wrote to his supporters and constituents.

Sabin wrote that he plans to move out of his current ward into the Elm City’s Westville neighborhood. He will graduate from Yale Law School in the spring. The relocation will make him a resident of the state House district currently represented by the longtime Democratic state representative Pat Dillon – a fact that was lost on no one who read Sabin’s announcement looking for clues about his future.

The announced move could signal the effective starting gun of a trend that some of the most plugged-in Connecticut insiders are predicting for 2026: a wave of young, up and coming politicos seeking seats in the state legislature.

Dillon was first elected in 1984, a decade and a half before Sabin was born to Paul Sabin, currently a professor of history at Yale, and Emily Bazelon, a prominent journalist who teaches at the law school.

Like many Yalies with New Haven roots and a penchant for politics, Sabin began his electoral career with a successful run in Ward 1, the aldermanic district that covers most of the university’s undergraduate population. The ward has long been a proving ground for ambitious students. Sabin went on to represent the neighboring Ward 7, spearheading legislation that resulted in downtown zoning changes which are intended to spur housing growth.

Sabin has also become a familiar face at the state capitol as a lobbyist for Connecticut Voices for Children. His advocacy for two interwoven progressive policy priorities – childcare and housing – have established his bona fides on the left.

With a towering physical presence, command of policy, and obvious ambition, Sabin is hard to miss in the crowded New Haven political scene. Gossip about his next moves has been percolating long before his announcement that he would move to Westville. That speculation has played out against the backdrop of a complex maneuvering to determine who will occupy New Haven’s key elected offices in the coming years.

Prior to his announcement, discussion of Sabin’s political future sometimes overlapped with theorizing about another young East Rock alder: Caroline Tanbee Smith.

Connecticut political junkies who spend a lot of time scrolling on Instagram will likely be familiar with Tanbee Smith and her prolific short-form videos highlighting her work around East Rock and Fair Haven. Armed with two degrees from Yale – one from its college and the other from its School of Management – Tanbee Smith has forged a reputation as one of New Haven’s most active young progressives.

From organizing neighborhood cleanups and pickup basketball games to promoting traffic safety reforms, Tanbee Smith has built an impressive following by relentlessly heralding a string of street-level policy initiatives with snappy, Mamdani-esque content. Local musings about what the next few years could hold for her range from a run for mayor (more on that in a second) to the legislature and beyond.

Tanbee Smith’s success in garnering social media views and admirers has stretched beyond her ward. Next week, she’ll co-headline the 2026 kickoff event for the Young Democrats of Connecticut. The event will take place in New Haven.

There have been whispers of a possible collision between Sabin and Tanbee Smith’s future plans due to their status as two of the most visible young strivers in a city with no shortage of intellect and ambition.

Prior to Sabin’s move to Westville, both he and Tanbee Smith were residents of the state House district currently held by State Rep. Roland Lemar.

At 49, Lemar is still relatively youthful by the skewed standards of the political profession. He’s showing no signs of slowing down. At the beginning of his current term, he was tapped by House Speaker Matt Ritter to co-chair the influential General Law Committee after proving his mettle atop the Transportation Committee.

For Sabin, waiting out Lemar for a shot at an open seat is a gamble that might take several more years to pay off and come with the added challenge of having to contend with a potent rival. Launching a primary could present an even more tenuous roll of the dice, not to mention the fact that Sabin and Lemar have close ties dating back to the former’s early start in city politics.

Running for either of New Haven’s State Senate seats would be an equally daunting task. Impending retirement does not seem to be in the cards for State Sen. Gary Winfield, who, like Lemar, is a respected middle-aged incumbent with a powerful committee leadership post.

(Side note: Winfield released some music over the holidays)

The question of State Senate President Marty Looney’s longevity was recently broached (sort of) by Mark Pazniokas in a CT Mirror article highlighting the senator’s move to file papers for re-election.

“It most likely will not be clear until the approach of the nominating conventions in spring whether the filing represents a definitive commitment to another term or an effort to postpone a free-for-all for an open race in a district dominated by Democrats,” Paz wrote.

In any event, there is an emerging consensus that State Rep. Al Paolillo Jr. would be the man to beat in a succession battle for Looney’s seat – whenever that battle might come.

Paolillo’s future was the subject of an off-the-cuff quip by Mayor Justin Elicker at last week’s inaugural ceremonies. Elicker noted that a previous speaker had mistakenly addressed Paolillo, a fixture of New Haven politics who is strongly allied with the city’s Democratic Party leadership, as a senator.

“Did I hear you’re Senator Paolillo?” Elicker joked. “Perhaps there’s some foreshadowing there.”

And then there’s Elicker’s own plans. The mayor is now in his fourth two-year term in office and a recent city charter change will lengthen the mayoral term to four years starting with the 2027 election. Whether or not Elicker wants to follow his pal Gov. Ned Lamont down the route of pursuing 12 years in office remains to be seen, but the fight for that longer term is still a year away.

Given all that, it was no surprise that Sabin’s move was interpreted by some as a possible set up to run for the House seat currently held by Dillon. Like any septuagenarian legislator, questions about retirement are certain to face Dillon. She has yet to file for re-election.

A primary challenge against Dillon is an option for Sabin. That would likely bring with it charges of opportunism and carpetbagging. Shaking the label of carpetbagging might be a surmountable task for a lifelong New Havener. Pushing back against claims that the move to Westville was a calculation to avoid presumably riskier fights elsewhere would probably be tougher.

Even with his strengths and track record, there is no guarantee that Sabin would have a clean, one-on-one shot at Dillon in a hypothetical primary. As evidenced by the four-person field to represent Connecticut’s 1st Congressional District, the entrance of one person into a race against an entrenched incumbent can have a galvanizing effect on other potential challengers. The 1st District race has also come with another message: Don’t underestimate an incumbent, no matter how old they are.

It is possible, of course, that Sabin’s move and abrupt departure from his seat on the Board of Alders comes with no political motives whatsoever. Perhaps the rent was more enticing in Westville. Maybe he prefers the pizza at the Whalley Avenue landmark Ernie’s over the offerings on Wooster Street. Whatever the reason for Sabin’s relocation, the very fact that his announcement was followed by immediate speculation about primary challenges and future campaigns portends a broader clamoring for generational change that is certainly not limited to the Elm City.

Though New Haveners like Sabin and Tanbee Smith may very well represent the cream of the crop when it comes to young Democratic electeds in Connecticut, they are far from the only youthful talents mapping political futures in their heads.

2026 could quickly become a year defined by the emergence of more young political aspirants dotting the Connecticut map with a slew of races to watch.

Two more legislative races take shape

Outside the realm of potential primaries and succession fights, several new filings in the state’s campaign reporting system revealed other races to watch in the new year.

In the Newtown state House district represented by Republican Mitch Bolinsky, Brandon Moore filed to run. Moore is a West Point alum and veteran of the war in Afghanistan, where he flew Apache attack helicopters. He recently picked up two graduate degrees from Harvard and served a very brief stint as chief of staff for Lieutenant Governor Susan Bysiewicz.

Bolinksy has demonstrated consistent strength in his district, successfully fending off handful of competitive challenges in recent years. In 2018, he prevailed over his Democratic challenger by less than 200 votes. Moore’s entrance into the race will likely put it in play once again. 

In the West Hartford state House district currently represented by Jillian Gilchrest, Tiffani McGinnis declared herself a candidate. Gilchrest is a contender in the aforementioned 1st District fight, and she recently told Pazniokas that she’s 100% out of the race for her seat in the legislature. McGinnis is a well known player in Democratic Party politics with experience on statewide campaigns and strong standing in Democrat-dominated West Hartford.

That’s all for this week. We’ll be back next week with another edition of the Tip Sheet!