Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet, a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report written by Mike Cerulli.

We hope everyone has enjoyed at least a bit of rest following the end of the 2025 legislative session.

This week, we are, once again, indulging in that great pastime of Connecticut politics: speculating about the 2026 election. Only this time, we are armed with the first concrete indications from Gov. Ned Lamont about his plans for next year.

Let’s dive in…

Lamont is “a lot more inclined” to run again. Will anyone challenge him?

There was no mistaking the signal Gov. Ned Lamont sent last Thursday.

Facing the press less than 12 hours after the 2025 legislative session ended, the governor dispensed with his predilection to offer meandering answers to questions he doesn’t want to address and instead gave relatively straightforward, reflective responses to questions about his intentions for next year’s gubernatorial election.

“If you had asked me a year ago,” Lamont said, “I would’ve said, ‘You know, nope. I think the state is on a good trajectory. We’ve stabilized things. We’re growing again. It’s time to pass the mantle.'”

But in the intervening months, Lamont says his thinking has evolved. Now, he says he’s “a lot more inclined” to seek a third term than he was just six months or a year ago.

Lamont was clear to caveat his statements. He hasn’t made a final decision yet. Conversations with First Lady Annie Lamont and Lt. Gov. Susan Bysiewicz are ongoing, he said. But for many of those plugged-in politicos who tuned in on Thursday to listen to the governor’s remarks, the message being sent was clear: Lamont is leaning toward another run.

The governor’s answers on Thursday didn’t just indicate which direction he’s leaning, they also previewed what a re-election message would look like.

“Maybe it’s a time where experience makes a difference,” Lamont said.

Experience, Lamont continued, is not lacking among the field of Democrats who are maneuvering to succeed him in the event he chooses to step aside. But, as the CT Mirror’s Mark Pazniokas put it, Lamont sees himself with an edge – particularly when it comes to navigating Connecticut’s relationship with the second Trump administration.

“I’ve been through it before,” Lamont said. “I worked with him for the first two years. You’ve got to navigate through some incredible uncertainty, since every week there’s another changing incoming. It just makes me feel like this may be a good place for me to be.”

Aside from offering a firm signal on his own future plans, Lamont’s remarks effectively threw cold water on the complex wargaming that has been playing out within the log jammed ranks of ambitious Connecticut Democrats.

If you’ll indulge the Tip Sheet, here’s a snapshot of what that ever-shifting game of “what if” now looks like…

For the Democrats known to be weighing a gubernatorial run of their own, the ramifications of a Lamont re-election bid varies. 

In the event Lamont doesn’t seek another term, two of those ambitious Democrats, Attorney General William Tong and Comptroller Sean Scanlon, will be faced with the difficult decision of whether or not to abandon bids for the jobs they now have in order to seek the state’s highest office. For them, Lamont’s signalling likely offers a degree of clarity. If Lamont opts for re-election, Tong can focus on the high profile role he’s currently in while leaving the door open for a possible midterm run for U.S. Senate in 2028 in the event Sen. Richard Blumenthal opts for retirement. Tong would also have the option of running for governor in 2030. In interviews, Scanlon has stated a desire to stay in Connecticut – meaning four more years of Lamont or a Republican successor offers four more years for Scanlon to prep his own run for governor in 2030.

The calculus for Lt. Gov. Susan Bysiewicz is similar to Tong’s and Scanlon’s in that she now has a greater degree of clarity as to her running mate’s plans. Like Tong, Bysiewicz would be free to make a historic run for the U.S. Senate in ‘28 in the event of a Blumenthal retirement or a run for governor in ‘30.

For former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, the governor’s Thursday presser was likely an unwelcome, if not existential development. Bronin has been out of office for more than a year. In recent months, he’s worked the shadow primary circuit with a fervor that reflects his well-known desire to run for governor next year. Few have attended as many door knocking canvases, fundraisers, and Democratic Town Committee meetings as Bronin. If Lamont’s inclination to run for a third term results in an eventual re-election campaign, the former Naval officer and Rhodes Scholar may be forced to look for deliverance from the political wilderness elsewhere – perhaps in an open contest for the state’s 1st Congressional District.

All of the Democrats currently testing the waters for a gubernatorial run next year face the prospect of a wider, more competitive field if they’re forced to defer their next moves for another three or five years. Speculation about the race for governor in ‘30 sounds premature because it is. By then, the political landscape could have shifted so much that the names considered to be well established today might have faded in relevance and political potency. A whole generation of rising Democrats – including figures like Stamford Mayor Caroline Simmons and Danbury Mayor Roberto Alves – will have five more years of experience, network building, and name recognition under their belts. 

In an open race for U.S. Senate or any of the state’s Congressional districts, the Democratic field could very well include others who boast high profiles but are not among those thought to be weighing a gubernatorial run next year.

Aside from the speculation about potential Lamont successors in ‘26 or ‘30, there has also been a surprising amount of movement in another, previously under-explored conversation: the prospect of a primary challenge if Lamont does decide to try for the “three-peat.”

On Friday, State Sen. Saud Anwar sent shockwaves through the state’s political scene with an op-ed in CT Insider calling on Lamont to step aside.

Anwar’s op-ed was a shot fired directly from Lamont’s left. The East Windsor physician gave voice to familiar grievances within the Democratic coalition.

“Gov. Ned Lamont continues to reject any meaningful effort to increase revenue from the state’s wealthiest residents, even as federal taxes on those same households have been slashed,” Anwar wrote. “His refusal to adapt to the new fiscal landscape is not just short-sighted; it’s dangerous.”

The op-ed didn’t stop at just tax issues.

“Beyond fiscal matters, Governor Lamont has shown a pattern of conservatism that is out of step with the urgency of our times,” Anwar wrote – referencing the governor’s stances on issues like private equity ownership of hospitals and his expected veto of a bill that would extend unemployment benefits to striking workers.

Anwar didn’t mince words when calling for the governor to step aside. He said explicitly that the governor shouldn’t run next year and that he hopes other Democrats weighing a run should “do so regardless of what the governor decides.”

The Tip Sheet is told that Anwar had been preparing to publish his op-ed since before the governor’s press conference last Thursday. The op-ed represents the first major public call for a primary challenge, but Anwar was not alone in expressing his displeasure with the governor last week.

In a blistering statement issued on Wednesday, New Haven Mayor Justin Elicker broadsided the governor over the issue of education funding.

Like Anwar, Elicker took aim at Lamont’s relative fiscal moderation. He wrote that Lamont’s “obsession with the state’s ‘fiscal guardrails’ and belief that urban school districts don’t need additional funding is causing real harm to our students in New Haven and students across the state.”

In a subsequent interview, Elicker stopped short of explicitly calling for a primary and said he wouldn’t run himself. But on the issue of Lamont’s plans for next year, the Elm City’s mayor made it clear that he doesn’t like the idea of a proud centrist carrying the Democratic banner. 

“It’s not time for us to take a centrist course here,” Elicker said. “It’s time for us to see real meaningful change in the way that our state structures its taxation system, in the way that our state invests in our communities — in particular our urban centers. And I want to see that happen.”

We’ll be back next week with another edition of the Tip Sheet!