Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet, a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report written by Mike Cerulli.

Last week, we broke down some of the most competitive races for the Connecticut House of Representatives. In the General Assembly’s lower chamber, speculation about the electoral math centers on the outcome of a half dozen races. In the Senate, the math is a bit more clear: the size of the Democratic majority will likely come down to just three races where Republicans are playing defense.

Tip Sheet readers will be familiar with those three contests: the race in that 8th State Senate District between incumbent Lisa Seminara and challenger Paul Honig, the race in the 36th State Senate District between incumbent Ryan Fazio and challenger Nick Simmons, and the race in the 28th State Senate District between incumbent Tony Hwang and challenger Rob Blanchard.

The Tip Sheet has spent time on the ground in each of those key districts, most recently in the 28th.

Here’s what we saw…

In battleground Fairfield, tension hides beneath New England charm

On Sunday afternoon, with the autumn sun beaming down on Fairfield’s historic town green, State Senator Tony Hwang worked his way through the crowd at the annual “Halloween on the Green” gathering. Hwang greeted families, shaking hands and taking pictures with children in costumes.

The Halloween season offers a fitting backdrop for the heated race for the 28th State Senate District. While children gleefully throw on spooky costumes, the two men seeking to represent the 28th have donned masks of their own. Each candidate wears a beaming smile–a disguise that belies deep tensions cutting through their race. Those tensions are fueled by years of political feuding between Hwang and Fairfield’s Democratic party and have been turbocharged by an influx of outside money in recent days.

On the town green, most Fairfielders seemed unaware that they had accidentally stumbled upon the field of a contentious electoral battle.

“Hi, Tony!” most people exclaimed when they saw the 15-year Republican incumbent approaching. Several passersby offered words of encouragement.

Nearly 20 miles away, Hwang’s Democratic challenger, Rob Blanchard, was out shaking hands in a different setting. Blanchard, a former campaign operative learned in the dark arts of cutthroat politics, spent most of the day knocking doors–hitting turfs in Easton and Newtown. Walking down a scenic portion of Route 25, Blanchard wasn’t shaking nearly as many hands as Hwang. But the interactions he did have yielded support.

One couple, identified as “unaffiliated” on the voter contact software Blanchard was using to guide his canvas through Newtown, quickly made it clear he had their votes.

The dueling Sunday itineraries of Hwang and Blanchard illustrated each man’s theory of the case when it comes to winning the hotly-contested district.

Blanchard, a relative newcomer to the district, has worked steadily to build his name recognition by going door-to-door since April. Hwang, a fixture of the greater Fairfield community, is remaining highly visible in an attempt to once again defy political gravity in an electoral environment increasingly hostile to anyone with an ‘R’ next to their name.

For Hwang, the tightrope act of winning as a Republican in Fairfield County has been a bruising task. He won his last race by a little more than a percentage point–the third consecutive cycle in which his margin of victory shrank from the previous election.

Hwang has been the subject of a barrage of attacks from Democrats in each of those cycles. Those attacks have only escalated this year.

Recently, his seat has been the target of a well-funded independent expenditure group with support from the Democratic mega donor Stephen Mandel. The group's filings indicate sizable investments in digital ads and mailers.

In one of the group’s digital ads boosting Blanchard and targeting Hwang, the narrator pins this summer’s electric bill sticker shock on Hwang in an apparent reference to his vote in favor of the 2017 Millstone nuclear power plant deal–a deal supported by numerous Democrats in the legislature.

The same independent expenditure group spending against Hwang has also added to the wall of money being spent in 36th State Senate District in an attempt to topple the similarly endangered Republican incumbent, Ryan Fazio.

In that district, the group is running a digital ad painting Fazio as an anti-abortion extremist–a label he has repeatedly rejected.

The public attacks against Hwang, some of which have come from Blanchard himself, paint a picture of a senator whose image as a moderate is discordant with a more right-wing record. This is a characterization Hwang has pushed back on, including with a recent campaign video that labeled attacks on him as “gaslighting.”

In recent days, the public attacks on Hwang have become even more pointed and personal. Kevin Rennie broadsided Hwang with a post on his must-read blog. The Fairfield Democratic Town Committee, led by town chair Steve Sheinberg, quickly amplified Rennie’s post. The former Republican state senator from South Windsor makes no bones about being a personal friend of Blanchard’s. In true Rennie-esque fashion, the post pulled no punches–giving a public voice to what have long been private snipes at Hwang’s personal style and penchant for self-promotion.

For all the money and attacks thrown at Hwang, Democrats are still largely divided on whether or not the fourth time will truly be the charm. Some Democrats, including people in and around the Senate Democratic caucus, speak of Hwang as though he has almost mythical retail skills. His aforementioned penchant for self-promotion might be a bit much for some, but there is no denying the role Hwang’s high-visibility strategy plays in his repeated wins.

Even in a presidential election cycle, some knowledgeable Democrats caution that overcoming Hwang’s name recognition and ties within the community could prove an insurmountable task once again.

Back on the town green, in the real world where phrases like “independent expenditure” and “GOTV” hold no meaning, Hwang continued to work the crowd. A retired Fairfield Police lieutenant approached to express effusive support for Hwang.

“We gotta get things back on track,” the retired lawman told the senator.

Hwang nodded, agreeing.

In Newtown later that day, Blanchard would find a retiree of his own. This one was on his front lawn using a leaf blower to clean out his Cub Cadet. He was a veteran IBEW member and said he’s been a Democrat his whole life. He’d seen Blanchard on all those pieces of mail.

For the next week, Blanchard and Hwang will continue their march across the 28th. They might take a brief pause on Thursday to hand out candy to trick-or-treaters. But then they’ll be back at it, smiles on their faces, asking for votes under the waning autumn sun.

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Jacqueline Rabe Thomas does it again…

Steak, anyone? You might find yourself craving your preferred cut of beef (perhaps from Max Downtown or Capital Grille) after reading the latest stellar reporting from Hearst Connecticut’s Jacqueline Rabe Thomas. Jacqueline penned a thorough review of the lifestyle of Connecticut State Colleges & Universities system chancellor Terrance Cheng.

Jacqueline’s reporting triggered a bipartisan wave of condemnation and, in rapid succession, several investigations.

The original report and two follow-ups are certainly worth a read.

A Rematch on Elm Street

In the century or so since voters first began directly electing U.S. Senators, general election rematches have been a relatively rare occurrence. A 2017 tally by Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball revealed that only 44 pairs of candidates had squared-off in a Senate rematch. Of those, Sabato’s 2017 survey found 16 instances where an incumbent twice faced the same challenger. To put that in perspective, there are 75 rematches this year alone in U.S. House races–including the 5th District contest between Jahana Hayes and George Logan and the 2nd District race between Joe Courtney and Mike France.

Of course, comparing the frequency of rematches in House races to rematches in Senate races isn’t exactly an apples-to-apples comparison, but it is an interesting historical curiosity to consider as Connecticut voters decide between the same two Senate candidates they saw on the ballot in 2018.

Chris Murphy and Matt Corey are once again opposite each other on the ballot and will appear on the debate stage on the eve of Halloween–a rematch on New Haven’s Elm Street.

The debate is Wednesday at 7:00 on WTNH. Dennis House and Kathryn Hauser will moderate the debate live.

That’s all for this week, folks!

We’ll be back next week!