Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet, a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report written by Mike Cerulli.

It’s been less than a week since Luke Bronin launched his campaign to end John Larson’s nearly three decade run in Congress, but the gloves are already starting to come off. The two men exchanged blows in a pair of press conferences last Wednesday.

We’ll recap what went down between the two rival Democrats and discuss the potential candidate who could shake up the nascent race.

Plus, Ryan Fazio officially formed his exploratory campaign ahead of his widely expected run for governor. Did Erin Stewart fire a subtle shot in his direction?

Let’s dive in…

1st District showdown: The gloves start to come off and the money starts to come in

If anyone was wondering what the race for the state’s 1st Congressional District would look and sound like, the first real day of campaigning offered a preview.

Last Wednesday, Luke Bronin launched his campaign with a social media video and a press conference at Hartford’s Parkville Market. Bronin embraced the vertical video style that has now become the dominant form in digital communications. When it comes to communications advice, he has no shortage of advisors. He's enlisted the help of Connecticut-based Intersect Public Solutions, a firm founded by Malloy alums Brian Durand and Michael Mandell, as well as a prominent national firm. Akash Kaza, the Gen Z flak who worked for Bronin during his tenure as mayor, was also on hand for the campaign launch.

The former mayor of the capital city didn’t waste time laying out his argument for why he believes Democratic voters should show John Larson the door.

“I think 28 years is long enough,” Bronin said at his Wednesday press conference. “I think that at a certain point, it’s time to let some new voices in.”

Bronin didn’t explicitly attack Larson on the issue of age nor did he mention the partial seizure the 77-year-old congressman experienced during a floor debate earlier this year. But the words he did use left no question that he would put the generational differences between him and the incumbent at the center of his campaign.

“We are at a moment when the world is changing faster than ever,” Bronin said. “Whether it’s climate change, technology and artificial intelligence, the way people communicate, changes in our economy — and we have a congressman, who again I respect, who has been talking about the same things and in the same way for 28 years.”

John Larson didn’t appear to feel the respect Bronin insisted he holds for the 14-term representative.

A couple hours after Bronin wrapped his press conference, Larson summoned the media across the river for a rebuttal. Unlike his new challenger, Larson mostly dispensed with any qualifiers about respect or admiration.

East Hartford’s favorite son appeared visibly frustrated at times as he stood outside the very same coffee shop where Bronin first told him he was interested in running for congress.

Larson questioned Bronin’s thesis that the Democratic Party needs wholesale, top-down changes to the ways it presents its message to voters.

“What’s your plan to strengthen it?” Larson asked. “That you’re a soprano, as opposed to an alto?”

He also pressed for more specifics on the substance of Bronin’s challenge.

“When you run for public office, it’s about what you’ve been able to deliver, what you’re currently working on today, and what your vision is for the future. What was Mr. Bronin’s?” Larson asked the small gaggle of reporters.

At one point, Larson even jabbed at Bronin’s well-known gubernatorial aspirations.

Earlier in the day, Bronin had questioned Larson’s aggressiveness in delivering the party’s message.

“The combination of healthcare costs, childcare costs, housing costs, electricity costs just makes it impossible to live a good middle class life anymore,” Bronin said. “I don’t hear John talking a lot about those things.”

“That is comple— we’ve not addressed things like healthcare?” Larson said when asked about Bronin’s remark. “Well, apparently he was too busy running for governor to see what we’ve done and what we’ve helped people do by establishing, first and foremost, a healthcare program for the whole country.”

At a high level, the exchange between Larson and Bronin wasn’t exactly unexpected. In the brief period between the first public reports of Bronin’s interest in the race and his campaign launch, most observers have assumed that he’d make a generational argument against Larson. Likewise, most people who are familiar with Larson could have guessed that he’d put his experience – and his crusade to expand Social Security benefits – front and center.

Aside from confirming those assumptions about the broad dynamics of the race, the two press conferences previewed the willingness of each man to go on the attack early in the cycle. Larson is willing to invoke Bronin’s political ambitions while questioning the basic thesis of his candidacy. Bronin is willing to challenge Larson’s effectiveness as a representative in a time when, as he argues, the job of congressman goes far beyond casting votes, negotiating legislation, and debating amongst colleagues.

Another thing we learned last week: Luke Bronin is capable of bringing serious money into this race.

Ok, maybe this wasn’t entirely new information.

Bronin has always had a reputation as a serious rainmaker with a rolodex that spans the country. Over the course of two mayoral elections, he’s proven to be a formidable fundraiser. He proved that again last week, claiming more than half a million dollars raised in the first 24 hours of his candidacy. Bronin was quick to point out that figure is more than twice what the incumbent had on hand at the beginning of the current quarter.

The money, like the rhetoric at Wednesday’s press conferences, is another sign of a ratcheting effect raising the temperature of this intra party showdown.

Of course, this is not just a two-way race.

Two other Democrats, Jack Perry of Southington and Ruth Fortune of Hartford, are already declared candidates.

A fifth potential candidate could upend the mano a mano exchange that took place last week between the two most prominent candidates.

The Gilchrest factor

While Bronin and Larson traded barbs across the river, rumors of an impending campaign launch by Jillian Gilchrest, the progressive state representative from West Hartford, continued to spread around the district.

If Gilchrest is to become the fifth entrant in the race for the 1st District, she could present a real threat to both the incumbent and to Bronin.

Any path to the Democratic nomination in the district will run squarely through the capital city’s more affluent suburbs.

Gilchrest’s hometown likely represents the single biggest prize.

While there aren’t any apples-to-apples comparisons to draw on to predict turnout in a 1st District primary, last year’s elections provide a very rough benchmark for comparing West Hartford’s electoral heft compared to, say, the most populous city in the district.

In the muted Democratic presidential primary that was held last spring, West Hartford nearly doubled Hartford’s total turnout. In the general election, the Democratic presidential ticket garnered nearly 3,000 more votes in West Hartford than in Hartford.

Like Bronin and Larson, Gilchrest is no stranger to contested primaries. She took out a long term incumbent in 2018.

She’s also popular among many of the state’s progressive groups and labor unions, having earned their trust as an outspoken advocate for causes dear to them.

Should she choose to jump in, the race for the 1st District would become all the more unpredictable…and interesting.

Fazio files. Stewart yawns.

It’s official. Sort of…

Late last week, Ryan Fazio filed paperwork to form an exploratory committee for statewide office. As we’ve previously reported, the Greenwich state senator has been receiving encouragement to run for governor and has been telling folks that he's leaning toward doing just that.

Kevin Rennie was first to report that the filing hit the system.

Not too long after Rennie posted the news, Erin Stewart took to the social media platform formerly known as Twitter and hit send on a one word post of her own.

“Yawn,” Stewart’s tweet read, complete with yawning emoji.

She didn’t tag Fazio or supplement the post with any additional statements that would suggest her potential rival was the subject of her tweet.

Who knows, maybe she’d just gotten back from a week of summer travel?

Who isn’t a little tired on a Friday evening?

Or maybe, just maybe, she was taking a shot at her fellow Republican.

The latest word from the Republican rumor mill is that Fazio will likely make a more formal announcement sometime around the middle of this month. He’s already got Jim Conroy, the former campaign manager for Charlie Baker, in his corner.

A number of Fazio's fellow Republican legislators are expressing private support. Some will endorse right out the gate. Others are still weighing the timing of their endorsement.

Harding goes country

While two of his fellow millennial Republicans circled the rough waters of a statewide primary, Steve Harding put on his cowboy hat and boot cut jeans for a jaunt to Music City.

Not really…

Harding was clad in a blazer and red tie when he stepped on the stage of this year's Young Republican National Convention in Nashville.

The leader of the legislature’s smallest but most punchy caucus addressed the crowd, relaying tales from behind enemy lines to a room of Gen Z and millennial Republicans.

Connecticut’s Young Republican organization hailed Harding’s inclusion in the speaker lineup at their national gathering.

The state’s delegation included Jack Martorano, Patrick Burland, and Jonathan Katz. Martorano is the former executive director of the Connecticut Republican Party. He served as party chair Ben Proto’s right hand and is headed to law school in Virginia this fall. Burland is a Woodbridge native who currently works at the American Conservation Coalition, a group that champions a conservative take on environmentalism. Katz is a Hamden native who will carry the party’s flag in the town’s upcoming mayoral election.

Murphy alum heads to the DNC

As Chris Murphy continues to build out his national profile, one of his top communications staffers is departing his office for a role at the Democratic National Committee.

Ally Livingston has worked in the senator’s Washington office since 2021. The Ridgefield native started out in Murphy’s comms shop as deputy press secretary and worked her way up to deputy communications director. She’s now the DNC’s director of surrogate communications.

Congrats, Ally!

We'll be back next week with another Tip Sheet!