Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet, a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report written by Mike Cerulli.

We hope everyone stayed warm this past weekend.

This week, we’re talking about State Rep. Josh Elliott’s recent email message to supporters and the discourse around his campaign.

Plus, the Lamont campaign’s latest hires, two interesting Democratic House primaries take shape, and the constitutional officers line up their campaign launches.

Let’s dive in…

Elliott asserts himself as he battles the “also-ran” label. Mauro says “that means something.”

As the GOP gubernatorial field grows feistier by the day and Gov. Ned Lamont continues to use the incumbent’s pulpit to generate a steady stream of headlines, it can be easy to brush off the fact that there is a Democrat challenging the two-term governor for the party’s nomination.

If one surveys the coverage of the race for governor, it’s hard not to notice the fact that State Rep. Josh Elliott’s campaign is occasionally treated as a bit of an afterthought. In public reporting, Elliott’s effort to unseat Lamont has been referred to bluntly as a “long-shot.” In private, plugged-in Democrats, including some who identify with the party’s progressive wing, have used more pejorative descriptors for the Hamden progressive’s campaign: unserious, haphazard, listless, to name a few.

Elliott himself embraces a practice of extreme candor – a trait that is among his most endearing but one that has amplified questions about the endurance of his challenge to a popular sitting governor.

Case in point: the recent Hartford Courant article in which Elliott effectively defined the limits of his own viability, acknowledging lagging fundraising and making an appeal to his fellow progressives to support his campaign.

“If it’s not possible to raise the money, there is no campaign,” Elliott told Chris Keating of the Hartford Courant. “I’m letting people know if they want the primary, I will give them the primary, but only if I have the funding, which is why it’s really important that people contribute.”

Viewed in isolation, Elliott’s interview with Keating could be taken as a face-saving measure. Should he fall short of the financial bar that Erin Stewart and State Sen. Ryan Fazio rapidly cleared, the fault, at least in his own telling, might not lie entirely with him.

And then came the email.

The message landed in inboxes on Sunday, as the relentless snowfall was fully enveloping the state and Drake Maye was punching his ticket to the Super Bowl.

“I’ve got some time to write, and a lot on my mind,” Elliott wrote.

What followed was some of the most direct and public criticism Elliott, or any Democratic legislator, has ever levelled at the governor.

There was a charge of “revisionist history” over Lamont’s assertion that he has driven the state’s fiscal rebound.

“Connecticut passed a bipartisan budget in 2017 – before Ned took office – that stabilized our finances,” Elliott wrote.

There was also a shot at Lamont for acting too slow, in Elliott’s view, over the issue of federal immigration enforcement.

“He is the reason ICE had free rein in our courthouses while families lived in fear,” he said. “Standing up to Trump? He’s been complying with ICE.”

If the Courant article was received as the beginning of an attempt to plot a somewhat graceful exit, the Sunday email served as a clarifying asterisk. Elliott is not shying away from laying gloves on the governor, even if his ultimate goal remains a remote one. In particular, the charge of “complying” with ICE demonstrates a willingness on Elliott’s part to tie Lamont to arguably the most outrage-inducing actions of the Trump administration.

It goes without saying that one email alone cannot erase the fundamental challenges that face Elliott. Yes, there are members of the party base who want to see the governor do more to oppose Trump, especially when it comes to the president’s campaign of deportations. Just wander about the crowd at any anti-Trump protest in Connecticut and you won’t be hard pressed to find an attendee who says something along the lines of, “I like what Murphy and Tong are doing, but Lamont needs to do more.”

Those calls to do more have been especially pronounced at the demonstrations in the wake of the killing of Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis and are likely to grow louder still as the public digests the disturbing footage of the shooting of Alex Pretti.

But the question of how much that sentiment will manifest at the Democratic state convention and possible primary is one that remains to be answered. If Elliott’s fundraising numbers are any indicator, there is not exactly a groundswell of people crying out for a Lamont alternative yet.

Plus, the governor does have a record to stand on when it comes to opposing ICE under the Trump administration. Just ask the Republicans who stood uniformly against Lamont-backed expansion of the state’s Trust Act – perhaps not far enough to satisfy the most ardent progressives but certainly sufficient to land Connecticut among the ranks of states that have drawn the administration’s ire.

Suffice to say that the questions Elliott’s latest missive poses are the same ones that he faced when he launched his campaign. Is there an appetite for what he’s selling and, perhaps more importantly, is he the right man to sell it?

What made this email different was not just its timing on the heels of two deeply consequential tragedies, though the timing cannot be ignored. In the firmament of Connecticut’s Democratic Party, people seemed to take this message a bit more seriously.

None other than Vin Mauro, the hyper-connected chairman of the New Haven Democratic Town Committee, told the Tip Sheet that he was hearing a real reaction to Elliott’s email on Sunday afternoon.

“Hearing from people that they are impressed by what Rep. Elliott is willing to say out loud,” he said.

“Lots of people like to complain behind the scenes, but he has been willing to say it out loud,” Mauro added. “That means something in this environment.”

Watch for it this week: Scanlon, Russell, and Tong to start rolling out undercard campaigns

Speculation about the long-term ambitions of the four statewide constitutional officers serving under Gov. Ned Lamont and Lt. Gov. Susan Bysiewicz is undoubtedly a favored pastime of the Connecticut political class.

In the shorter term, there has been little doubt that all four of them are seeking re-election in 2026. Secretary of the State Stephanie Thomas has been a declared candidate for quite some time now.

This week, the other three – Treasurer Erick Russell, Comptroller Sean Scanlon, and Attorney General William Tong – will begin a coordinated process of making official what has long been assumed. The Tip Sheet understands that Scanlon will file first. The other two will follow, separated over a period of a few weeks to give each the opportunity to have a little moment in the spotlight.

Though all the constitutional officers are expected to draw Republican challengers, the real contest may very well be an intraparty one to see which of them can garner the most votes.

Perhaps the winner can get a new state-issued SUV…

Lamont’s latest hires

The Ned Lamont re-election campaign is beefing up its staff, adding to the team helmed by Francesca Capodilupo.

Julia Vos, a seasoned operative on the Fairfield County campaign circuit, is serving as Capodilupo’s deputy.

Roger Senserrich is the campaign’s new press secretary, joining a comms operation driven by the Connecticut politics vet Lauren Gray. Senserrich’s hiring is particularly notable given his previous work with the progressive Connecticut Working Families Party.

Housekeeping: Field in 92nd forms up, Volpe jumps in for Exum seat 

There will officially be (at least) a three-way primary for the House seat held by long-term incumbent Pat Dillon. Justin Farmer filed his papers last week, joining Dillon and Eli Sabin in what could be one of the most closely-watched Democratic primaries in the state.

On the topic of interesting primaries, there appears to be another contest shaping up in the House district being vacated by Tammy Exum. The outgoing Exum has thrown her support behind Olaleye Onikuyide, a 27-year-old West Hartford lawyer, according to a report from Ronni Newtown of We-Ha.com.

Onikuyide won’t have an uncontested path to victory. Mario Volpe, another West Hartford Gen Zer whose resume includes a stint with the Senate Democratic Office, has jumped in the race, too.

In addition to showcasing two young Democratic talents, the race to succeed Exum might also present a proving ground for the organizing muscle of the Young Democrats of Connecticut. Volpe is a board member. Alan Cunningham, the organization’s leader and arguably the most influential Gen Z politico in the state, promptly reposted Volpe’s announcement on Instagram.

That’s all for this week! We’ll be back next week with another edition of the Tip Sheet.