Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet, a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report.

This week, we’re previewing the political and media dynamics of the trial of Kosta Diamantis and breaking down the attention-grabbing poll released by the University of New Hampshire.

Let’s dive in…

Kosta heads to court. Is Connecticut paying attention?

Of the 82 potential jurors that reported for screening at the federal courthouse in Bridgeport, only 6 said they were aware of the sprawling saga that landed Konstaninos Diamantis on the receiving end of a 22-count indictment.

That striking figure was reported by Ken Dixon as part of an expertly written portrait of the jury selection process that unfolded on Friday.

The fact that only a half dozen of the prospective jurors had ever heard of the bribery charges brought against Governor Ned Lamont’s former deputy budget director and school construction chief is perhaps a good starting point when evaluating the potential political fallout of a trial that promises to be a marathon.

The number seems to suggest that the days when reports of scandals splashed across the headlines of the state’s once plentiful news publications could meaningfully penetrate the public consciousness are over.

In 2005, when John Rowland’s former chief of staff was facing bribery charges, an Associated Press report described “nearly every juror questionnaire” showing a familiarity with the former governor’s scandal. About a decade later, when Rowland himself stood trial for campaign finance charges, jury selection was protracted by similar concerns that media attention and public awareness would taint the prospect of a fair trial.

Of course, charges against a former governor are bound to grab more attention than similar charges against a senior official who had job titles that require multiple sets of acronyms to fit into a succinct sentence. But the numbers reported out of Kosta Diamantis’s jury selection still paint a stark picture of the amount of attention the trial has garnered – even as dedicated watchdogs like Andrew Brown, Dave Altimari, Mark Pazniokas, and Kevin Rennie have broken story after story on the Diamantis matter.

Perhaps it’s the complexity of the charges against Diamantis that have clouded the public’s awareness of the case. After all, a hot tub at a weekend home is a bit easier to boil down into a lede than the intricacies of the Office of School Construction Grants and Review.

In any event, the upcoming trial will present a unique test case of how much public attention can be garnered by a set of charges that, while enmeshed in the machinations of state government bureaucracy, ultimately amount to a fairly blunt allegation of pay-for-play bribery by a senior state official.

With an election year just around the corner, this trial could have real bearing on the tenor of the gubernatorial campaign – if it manages to break through to the public.

The extent to which Norm Pattis, Diamantis’s defense attorney, will seek to try the case in the press will have a large bearing on how much attention the trial receives.

Pattis is no stranger to the media. He has been involved in some of the most high-profile Connecticut legal cases in recent history, including as Alex Jones’s counsel and Fotis Dulos’s defense attorney.

If Pattis declines to mount an aggressive public relations campaign, the state’s Republicans might take the opportunity to define the public narrative themselves. The GOP has already cast Diamantis as a central figure in their meme-able “culture of corruption” line of attack on Lamont.

As for the governor, his public response to questions from the press on Friday didn’t suggest he’s too concerned about his own exposure – politically or otherwise.

Asked if he’d been subpoenaed as a witness, Lamont didn’t appear to have a firm answer. 

“I think I have,” Lamont said.

Pattis moved last week to add Lamont’s name to a list of witnesses he intends to call, but that action alone does not mean that the governor will testify.

When asked if he is willing or expects to testify, Lamont said, “I don’t have an answer for that. I will tell you, I get sued a lot. A lot of personnel issues. It’s just what happens in government these days.”

Does the governor feel as though the conduct of his administration is going on trial?

“No, I didn’t hire him,” Lamont said. “I fired him as soon as I found out there was something untoward going on, and then the feds came in. And now there’s a trial. We’ll see how it sorts out.”

We’ll see how it sorts out…

UNH poll takeaways

It was the poll heard ‘round the state. Or, at least, the poll heard ‘round the state’s political world.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center released its “Nutmeg State Poll” gauging support for Governor Ned Lamont and the Democrats who’ve expressed ambition for the office held but the two-term incumbent.

So, what are some of the key takeaways?

When it comes to re-election, younger voters are unsure about Lamont.

The topline results for the governor remain generally positive for the governor. He enjoys 54% overall approval and a net favorability of +8. The electorate is essentially evenly split on the question of whether they’d like to see him run for re-election and whether he deserves another term. 

Those numbers are less promising among younger voters.

Approval among Gen Z and millennials was a net positive, albeit lower than the overall number. 43% of respondents ages 18-34 and 48% of respondents ages 35-49 approve of Lamont’s job performance. When those younger residents were asked if they’d like to see the governor run again and if they believed he deserved another term, the numbers ticked down.

37% of respondents between the ages of 18-34 responded "definitely" or “probably” when asked if they’d like to see Lamont run in 2026. That number ticked down a single point among residents in the next age bracket, 35-49. More than 50% of those under 50 said they “probably” or "definitely" do not want the governor to run next year.

That performance among those under 50 stands in contrast to Lamont’s strong support among those over 65. 70% of that cohort would like to see the governor run again. 

When asked if they believed Lamont deserves another term, the youngest group in the survey gave him even worse marks than they did on the question of whether they’d like to see him run again. Just a quarter of respondents between 18-34 said the governor deserves to be re-elected. That age range encompasses the oldest half of Gen Z and the youngest millennials. They were by far the least enthusiastic about Lamont’s deservedness for re-election.

Lamont scored better among the age group that encompasses the so-called “geriatric millennials” and the youngest members of Gen X. 40% of residents between 35-49 said Lamont deserves re-election.

On the question of deservedness, the governor again drew his strongest support from the oldest age bracket. 65% of the over 65s – a group that's mostly the governor’s fellow baby boomers – said Lamont deserves re-election.

Tong has the strongest support of the non-Lamont potential gubernatorial candidates.

If anyone besides the governor had reason to celebrate the topline results of the poll, it was almost certainly Attorney General William Tong.

Tong came in second to the governor on the question of whether or not voters would like to see him run for governor. Among those who identify as Democrats, 49% said they’d “probably” or "definitely" want to see him run 41% for Lieutenant Governor Susan Bysiewicz run and just 15% who said the same about Comptroller Sean Scanlon.

Digging deeper into those numbers, there also appears to be a considerable intensity gap between Tong and Bysiewicz’s respective support within their party. That term refers to the strength, motivation, and depth of support among voters. In other words, gauging an intensity gap on polling questions like the ones fielded by UNH means looking at the percent of voters who pick the most affirmative option when asked their opinion of an issue or politician.

In Tong’s case, 26% of Democrats said they "definitely" would like to see him run for governor. Bysiewicz garnered 14%. Scanlon only had 4% choose the most enthusiastic answer to that question. The attorney general also had noticeably higher favorability ratings than either Bysiewicz or Scanlon. 54% of Democrats hold a favorable view of Tong, compared to 41% for Bysiewicz and 11% for Scanlon.

The comptroller’s numbers were characterized by a high percentage – roughly around two thirds – of respondents who did not know enough about him to answer the questions or had no opinion.

CT Sun investment is unpopular.

The question of whether or not Connecticut should use its public employee pension funds to purchase a minority stake in the Connecticut Sun, the results showed bad news for the Democrats – including the governor – who have expressed support for that plan.

54% of residents oppose the plan, including 70% of independents. Only 15% of residents support it.

We’ll be back next week with another edition of the Tip Sheet!