Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet, a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report written by Mike Cerulli.

This week, we’re taking a look at a curious survey sent out to Democrats in the congressional district of one of the state’s longest-serving elected officials.

Plus, we’ll analyze the GOP’s fiery press conference that took aim at Gov. Ned Lamont.

Let’s dive in…

Somebody is polling a Larson primary

Late last week, a question once confined to the speculative chattering of Connecticut’s political insiders was beamed to the cell phones of Democrats across the state’s First District.

Is Congressman John Larson vulnerable to a primary challenge?

The question was posed in the form of a 20-question survey texted to First District Democrats. Tip Sheet readers – including several well-connected Democratic operatives and staffers – sent the link along to us to review.

Recipients of the survey were asked things like, “In August of 2026, there will be a statewide Democratic primary election. How likely are you to vote in that election?”

Five of the survey’s questions gauged favorability of prominent Connecticut Democrats: Larson, Gov. Ned Lamont, Lt. Gov. Susan Bysiewicz, Attorney General William Tong, and former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin.

The survey then asked its respondents to ponder a lengthy list of potential candidates in a First District Primary in the following order: Larson, Southington Town Council member Jack Perry, State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest, West Hartford Mayor Shari Cantor, State Sen. Matt Lesser, State Sen. Saud Anwar, State Rep. Kerry Wood, Bloomfield mayor Danielle Wong, attorney Chris Mattei, state House Majority Leader Jason Rojas, and State Rep. Tammy Exum.

A subsequent question narrowed the list to just Larson, Perry, and Gilchrest.

Voters were also asked a rather leading question, “Would you vote to re-elect or replace John Larson if you knew that John Larson has been in elected office for 42 years, and there was a new, next generation experienced candidate running for Congress with expertise in both the public and private sectors with a record of meaningful accomplishments in Connecticut?”

The inclusion of Perry, a relatively unknown name outside his town and the State Senate district he resides in, and the wording of the question about Larson’s vulnerability led many to immediately draw conclusions about who was behind the survey.

Kevin Rennie was the first to publicly report on the poll, and he asked the obvious question in his signature, witty style.

"Who is Jack Perry and why did he make it into the second round with only Larson and Gilchrest?” the South Windsor scribe wrote.

According to Rennie, Perry was “not familiar with the survey but sounded like someone itching to make the leap to a higher office.”

Perry also broached the issue of age and health in his reported conversation with Rennie, referencing a faltering moment the 76-year old recently experienced on the floor of the House of Representatives – an incident Larson said was diagnosed as a complex partial seizure.

Since that episode on the House floor, Larson has enjoyed a moment in the national spotlight as a viral – and energetic – warrior against Elon Musk’s efforts to drastically reduce government spending.

The question of Larson’s vulnerability is one that’s never really been tested in the “AOC era” – an era when progressive upstarts from Queens to St. Louis have taken aim at established Democratic incumbents.

Maud Hrezi, a former staffer for Sen. Chris Murphy, mounted a challenge in the AOC mold in 2022 but was ultimately denied access to the ballot.

If Larson is to be challenged, or if he decides to retire, a primary in the First District could be as crowded as the anonymous survey’s list suggested.

Fundraising will certainly be key, and an early start could give a candidate, particularly a relative unknown, an edge. Assembling a capable team will also be important – particularly if the state’s bench of Democratic campaign talent is faced with multiple candidates across multiple primary contests eager to sign-on talented operatives.

As word of the text survey shot around Democratic circles, one of those talented operatives became the subject of immediate discussion. Cole Haymond, a Swiss Army Knife of a consultant, is known to have a longstanding relationship with Perry. The Tip Sheet can confirm Rennie’s reporting that Haymond has been working the phones while on vacation in Mexico to assure friends and clients, including the state Democratic Party, that he is not involved in any effort backing Perry.

Perry, an independently-wealthy entrepreneur, also has ties to a DC-based firm, Bergmann Zwerdling Direct. He worked with the firm in his unsuccessful 2020 campaign to unseat Republican State Sen. Rob Sampson – another ambitious pol whose plans for 2026 are up in the air.

Others included in the survey would also bring significant fundraising and political skill to a potential primary next year. Bronin has an expansive network of donors and allies with experience in the political trenches. Mattei has a national profile and ties with deep-pocketed friends throughout the state’s legal community. Anwar, Wong, and Gilchrest have also been the subject of speculation among plugged-in First District Democrats.

But even with a deep bench of possible contenders, most political insiders who’ve spoken with the Tip Sheet in the days since the survey was sent out agree on who the most formidable candidate in the First District is.

His name is John Larson.

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Haar plays everybody’s favorite game

Had enough 2026 speculation?

We didn’t think so.

Our friend Dan Haar doesn’t seem to think so, either. He penned an insightful analysis on a recent appearance by Gov. Ned Lamont at the latest CT Mirror “In the Room” event.

TL;DR… 

Haar read some re-election doubts in between the lines of Lamont’s answers to John Dankosky.

It’s rare to get such an extended, public look inside the mind of Connecticut’s 89th governor. Most insider speculation about the 71-year old’s intentions for next year’s election is based on second, third, and fourth-hand recountings of conversations so-and-so had with the governor while out for a walk in one of his two favorite parks in the capital city – or over meals at Lamont’s favored haunts in Hartford, New Haven, and Greenwich.

For those who will never have the privilege to stroll through Elizabeth Park or dine at Salute or Portofino with the governor, Dankosky’s interview and Haar’s analysis is the best they’ll get. You can read Haar’s piece here and watch the “In the Room” interview here.

Steve and Vinny take the gloves off…with some help from their Gen Z staffers

When Steve Harding and Vinny Candelora took to the podium last Thursday to broadside the governor, the memes flew almost as fast as the accusations of systemic corruption.

The centerpiece of the GOP press conference was a large poster board designed in what the Tip Sheet can only describe as the “Always Sunny in Philadelphia” style.

If you’ve seen the meme, you get it. If you haven’t, click here for some help.

In the center of the poster was a photo of Gov. Ned Lamont surrounded by pictures and headlines from some of the missteps and scandals that have befallen his administration and his party throughout six years in office.

Two Democrats facing criminal charges, Kosta Diamantis and Wanda Geter-Pataky, were prominently featured. So was Terrence Cheng, the governor’s pick to lead the state college system who was revealed to have charged thousands of dollars worth of meals to his state credit card. Cheng has not been charged with any crimes and is still on the job.

In addition to photos, the board also featured a number of headlines.

The CT Mirror’s Dave Altimari noted, “The CT GOP ‘board of corruption’ is basically a house ad for the Connecticut Mirror nearly every headline or story came from our reporting.”

Reporting from Mark Fitch of the CT Inside Investigator analyzing data from a state vehicle used by the governor’s office was also pinned to the board. That reporting revealed that someone drove that vehicle in excess of 100 miles per hour.

The press conference was ostensibly predicated on a call by Republicans to establish an inspector general office with expansive investigative authorities and to call on the legislature's new oversight committee to more aggressively investigate wrongdoing. But beyond the call for a new state official to probe corruption, there was another message delivered by the Connecticut Republicans at their fiery presser: the gloves are coming off.

“They don’t want to talk about anything that goes on in this building,” Harding said. “And when you see what is going on in this building with the waste, fraud, and corruption and abuse — I wouldn’t want to talk about it either if I owned it.”

The governor fired back.

“Talk about corruption, look where we were twenty years ago, look who was involved then,” Lamont told News 8. “Now, you’re talking about DMV and somebody over at OPM. Look, were gonna get to the bottom of everything. I don’t mean to be dismissive of it. I’m trying to do everything I can to give you confidence that the state’s headed in the right direction. And I don’t need these guys badmouthing the state every day.”

Aside from debuting a new, more aggressive approach from the state’s Republicans, last week’s press conference also showcased the GOP’s newfound prowess in the world of memes and online political combat.

In the war for attention in the digital age, Connecticut’s House Republicans in particular seem to have figured something out.

Their TikTok page leads the pack among the four caucuses in terms of viral content and views – a credit to the caucus’ trust in a cadre of Gen Z staffers who’re spearheading content strategy.

That fluency in the language of internet culture was on full display last week with the meme-able “board of corruption.” Yes, the board was a little tongue in cheek. But maybe that was the point. For every snarky comparison to the infamous “Always Sunny” meme, another set of eyeballs was introduced to the “board of corruption.”

If Connecticut politics is to go the way of national politics and be further swallowed up into the world of memes and short-form videos, the Republicans have demonstrated that they have an enviable crop of talent as they look to claw their way out of super minority status.

Got a news tip? Drop us a line: Michael.Cerulli@protonmail.com. We can keep you anonymous.

DOT hires Zymaris

Eva Zymaris, the award-winning reporter who called WTNH’s 8 Elm Street home for five years, is heading to the state’s Department of Transportation.

The veteran broadcaster is departing the news business this week and will serve as DOT’s spokesperson.

Allow the Tip Sheet’s author to switch to the first person for a moment.

To our readers at DOT, you’ve got one of the best in the business joining your team.

To Eva, thanks for showing me the ropes at work and best of luck in this new chapter of your life.

We’ll be back next week with another edition of the Tip Sheet.