Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet, a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report written by Mike Cerulli.

This week, we’re previewing the anticipated climax of the funding showdown between the executive and legislative branches. Plus, we’ll check in with one of the most high-profile voices in the Connecticut Republican party: State Sen. Rob Sampson. What does he think about his party’s choices for governor in 2026? Is he preparing to jump in the race himself?

Let’s dive in.

Ned convenes Dem leaders as he mulls veto

After a week of back-and-forths over how much the state can afford to spend on special education and other initiatives, Gov. Ned Lamont convened the Democratic leaders of the legislature for a Sunday night call.

The call was short – not even half an hour – according to Tip Sheet sources who were either on the call or briefed on the details. According to those sources, the governor didn’t explicitly state his intentions, but he stuck close to the same line he’s taken in interviews and delivered through intermediaries in the past two weeks.

Those public statements from the governor and his top lieutenants have indicated two things: Lamont was surprised by the Democratic push to ram through $40 million in special education funding, and his top budget brains stand by their assessment that the state’s spending cap does not allow for such spending on the timeframe legislative Democrats have proposed.

With his objections well-documented and now communicated personally to the Democrats who command both chambers of the legislature, Lamont only has one more thing left to do: publicly announce whether or not he’ll use a line-item veto to block the $43 million in proposed spending. That spending includes the $40 million for special education as well as about $3 million for LGBTQ groups and Planned Parenthood.

The governor is slated to address the press this afternoon in an unspecified media availability.

The clock is ticking.

Rob Sampson’s long game

Rob Sampson is ready to fight in this legislative session, and his Republican colleagues seem to be following his lead.

Early last week, while Democrats quarreled amongst themselves over the spending cap, Republicans prepared to mount their own campaign of opposition to parts of the agenda presented by Democratic leadership.

As with any partisan fight under the golden dome, the Republicans came to the field of battle vastly outnumbered. But in the Senate chamber, Sampson is a not-so-secret weapon who can help balance the oratorical scales in the face of a 2-to-1 disadvantage.

Depending on who you ask, Sampson’s ability to speak for hours on end and meticulously pick through each section of a bill is either his most admirable quality as a legislator or his most annoying. When you ask the man himself, it's apparent that he views his own ability to hold the floor as a potent legislative weapon.

“I wanna be as humble as I can, but I do have a tremendous amount of power about what happens in the last stages of the legislative session,” Sampson told the Tip Sheet in a recent interview. “In many ways, I decide what lives and dies. I really do.”

Last Tuesday, Sampson rose to speak under slightly different circumstances. There was no ticking clock. The proposed legislation would not turn into a pumpkin when the clock struck midnight. That lack of a hard out blunted Sampson’s ability to exercise the power he can wield in the waning days of the session, but it did not diminish his zeal.

Sampson’s floor speech was fiery as ever as he honed in on a portion of the proposed legislation that would see millions steered toward LGBTQ groups and Planned Parenthood.

“It’s Christmas for various entities that are aligned with the Democratic majority,” Sampson said in his speech.

Sampson’s speech drew pushback from Democrats who objected to its substance and charged that Sampson was reading from a printed list in violation of the legislative rules. 

After a series of spirited sidebars between the leaders and chiefs of staff of both parties, Sampson resumed.

Floor speeches aside, Sampson’s role inside the Senate Republican caucus and his future plans are the subject of great curiosity by many insiders. In Democratic circles, he’s variously painted as a villain, an annoyance, and a provocateur. In Republican circles, his name is frequently bandied about as a possible contender for governor.

Within the Senate Republican caucus, Senate Minority Leader Steve Harding has empowered Sampson with an expanded role driving strategy – particularly when it comes to policy and messaging. 

“I think that he has had an increased role in analyzing policy and analyzing our approach of caucus to issues and, ultimately, strategy,” Harding told the Tip Sheet.

Sampson said that expanded responsibility stands in contrast to the role he had under Harding’s predecessor, Kevin Kelly.

“I had Kevin's respect and he appreciated me and we had a lot of dialogue, but he certainly was not putting me in a position to determine the policy direction or rebranding our caucus,” Sampson said. “Steve is fully on board and in agreement with me about remaking the Connecticut Republican brand and doing it from the Senate Republicans as a centerpoint.”

Rebranding the Connecticut Republican party is something Sampson has thought about a lot. In his estimation, Connecticut Republicans are experiencing something of an identity crisis throughout the fractious and disparate wings of the party. Without a clear strategy to drive the brand around the state, perception varies greatly depending on the audience.

“If you ask the base Republican Trump voter, they're gonna say Connecticut Republicans are weak and that they don't fight,” Sampson said. “If you ask people on the left, they're gonna say the opposite. They're gonna say, ‘Connecticut Republicans are those radical Trump people.’”

Perhaps most alarming to Sampson is his view of voters somewhere in the middle of the political spectrum.

“If you ask more moderate voters, they probably don't have an impression of our brand,” he said.

Sampson is hardly the first or only Connecticut Republican to make these observations. But he is one of the most vocal and visible members of the party – with years of experience and ties to the state’s ascendant conservative grassroots.

So, what brand does Rob Sampson want to see his party embrace?

To answer that question, it’s important to point out what Rob Sampson is and is not. He is not, at least in his own telling, as “MAGA” as some in the majority party have portrayed him. He describes his ideology as more libertarian in contrast to Trump’s populism.

“He’s historically much more willing to spend money than I am,” Sampson said, adding that he is generally opposed to tariffs.

But Trump 2.0 has given Sampson plenty to cheer for.

“I’ve been critical of Trump over the years although I couldn’t be happier now seeing him in this new light where he’s concentrating on cutting spending and the focus on DOGE and all that stuff – I think is fabulous,” Sampson said. “That’s exactly what I want to see.”

More than anything, Sampson seems to find agreement with Trump on the lens through which they both view partisan conflict.

“My view on politics in Connecticut right now is we’re at war,” Sampson said. “We’ve been operating as if it's peacetime for too long as Connecticut Republicans.”

The concept of shifting the Connecticut Republican party from its roots as a moderate, prim organization to a more aggressive opposition party is a mission Sampson seems to share with the minority leader who has empowered him to be a voice of the caucus.

“There are different ways of looking at things in the minority in Hartford,” Harding explained. “We’re no longer gonna be complacent in passing bad policy and kind of sugarcoating things to make us look good too.”

Acknowledging the implications of this view, Harding added, “This is not disrespect to any leadership of the past, but I think sometimes when you look at different approaches, one approach is kind of going along with what the majority is doing and then kind of sugarcoating it.”

The rhetorical shift within the Senate Republican caucus has been noticeable – particularly in the past few months as they’ve found their voice on energy issues. They’ve kept up a steady pace of press conferences and brought their more pointed messages to social media platforms.

Democrats have noticed the vibe shift, and they’re not entirely pleased with it.

“I think they’re a little less pragmatic and a little bit more dogmatic,” State Sen. Bob Duff told the Tip Sheet.

But to what end? As noticeable as the Senate Republicans’ messaging pivot has been, it did not manifest in electoral gains last year.

Asked to reflect on last year’s results in Connecticut, Sampson said the challenges for the party go deeper than just one cycle.

“I think that we’re actually making some headway and people are noticing,” Sampson said.

Then, as he illustrated his point that his caucus was making forward progress on messaging, he waded directly into the waters of the 2026 gubernatorial election.

“Hey,” Sampson remarked, “Erin Stewart is more than happy to point out that she’s in agreement with the actions of Senate Republicans lately and that says something.”

Sampson was making a thinly-veiled reference to a small squabble between Duff and the Senate Republicans that revolved around whether or not the caucus and Stewart were intentionally echoing each others’ messaging.

“There seems to be a lot of coordination connections and coordination between a person who is mayor right now running for governor and what’s coming out of the Senate Republican Office,” Duff said last week.

The Tip Sheet asked Sampson his thoughts on Stewart’s exploratory campaign for governor. Staying true to his signature style, he did not hold back. Discussions about Stewart’s potential candidacy, Sampson argued, cut to the core of a question that has dogged Connecticut Republicans for multiple successive elections: What’s the best strategy to win?

“The folks that are supporting Erin are gonna argue – the first thing out of their mouth when you ask them about her is that she’s electable,” Sampson said. “I have great respect for Erin. I’ve known her for a long time. And…how do I say this? I don’t know that I agree she is electable.”

Sampson’s doubts about Stewart’s viability are rooted first and foremost in a cold fact that many insiders have long discussed: Stewart will likely have to navigate a primary before she’ll ever get a shot at the Democrats’ candidate.

“I think that if Erin Stewart is gonna be the candidate for governor, she’s got to win the convention by 86% because if she allows anyone to the right of her to make the 15% threshold, that person is likely to be the candidate,” Sampson said, citing the precedent set by the two most recent statewide primaries for U.S. Senate.

Of course, that begs the question: Is Sampson that candidate who could enter the race to the right of Stewart?

Borrowing a page from the governor he might one day challenge, Sampson told the Tip Sheet he’d make a decision on entering the governor’s race after the session had ended. In making his decision, Sampson said he was torn between his newfound responsibilities in the Senate Republicans caucus and a desire to seek a position of greater influence. 

“To be honest with you at this point it's gonna be very hard for me to walk away from Senate Republicans,” Sampson said.

What can we expect from the former dirt bike racer and aquarium enthusiast for the rest of the session?

He says his floor speech last week offered a preview.

“I do that to assert myself and remind them, ‘Hey guys, in case you forgot, I’m still here and you’re gonna have to deal with me this entire session.’”

Capitol Report on-air: Polletta joins the panel, Marty mulls movie start times, and Somers reveals her latest watch

If you’ve been tuning-in to Capitol Report on Sunday mornings or catching the whole show online, you might’ve noticed some changes to the usual panel.

Brandon McGee will now be a regular on the show, joining his former speaker on the Democratic side of the panel.

This past weekend, State Rep. Joe Polletta filled in for regular panelist John McKinney, creating a millennial vibe at the table.

You can watch the whole show here.

Also making cameos on the show: Senate President Marty Looney and State Sen. Heather Somers weighed-in on the former’s bill to require movie theaters to post the actual start time of films so that folks can skip the trailers.

The Tip Sheet’s author was curious to know which movie each senator had most recently scene in a theater. Looney said he prefers Netflix and Turner Classics these days.

With a wry smile, Somers revealed her latest watch: ‘Babygirl.’

Google that one, boomers…just not on your state-issued laptop.