Good morning and welcome back to the Tip Sheet, a weekly newsletter from Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report written by Mike Cerulli.

This week, we’re taking a look at the latest steps State Sen. Ryan Fazio is taking as he explores a run for governor. He’s kept a relatively low profile since he filed the formal paperwork to form an exploratory committee for statewide office, but his supporters are already out making the case for him.

This week could prove to be something of an informal kickoff for the Fazio ‘26 campaign.

Plus, a big fight in one of the state’s key suburbs might draw in one of Fazio’s colleagues and could shift the balance of power in the State Senate. 

Let’s dive in…

The Fazio blitz

It’s already shaping up to be a big week for Ryan Fazio – personally and politically – as he embarks on his exploratory campaign for statewide office.

On Sunday, the Greenwich senator announced his engagement to his girlfriend, Amy Orser.

This morning and in the coming days, two of his key allies will continue to boost his nascent campaign on the state’s talk radio circuit.

One of those allies, State Sen. Heather Somers, has already become one of Fazio’s most outspoken supporters. She hit the airwaves last week to sing Fazio’s praises and preview what his camp’s line of attack against Erin Stewart, the New Britain mayor who is also prepping a gubernatorial campaign, would look like in the event the two rising Republicans find themselves squaring off for the GOP nomination.

“When you look at the records of the other folks that are in the race or potentially in the race, I do not want to have a governor who has raised property taxes,” Somers said in one interview. “We have that already in the Democratic party, that’s not what we need from a Republican.”

It’s no secret that there’s no love lost between Somers and Stewart. Somers's early swipes at the Hardware City’s chief executive are indicative of a desire in the Fazio camp to come out swinging.

Rhetorical fisticuffs are a specialty of another Fazio ally, State Sen. Rob Sampson. He’s expected to jump further into the fray this week as a quasi-surrogate for the yet-to-be-announced campaign.

Sampson has not been shy about his thoughts on Stewart and he appears poised to help his senate colleague rally support among the party’s conservative base.

As for Fazio himself, expect to see more from him this week, too.

As for Stewart, she has yet to say anything publicly about her potential rival. Unless, of course, you count that not-so-thinly-veiled “yawn” tweet she sent out when Kevin Rennie broke the news of Fazio’s exploratory committee.

In a heads-up showdown between Fazio and Stewart, the two millennial Republicans each bring their own theory of the case.

They’ll both argue they’re electable in a state where their party has found electoral success increasingly elusive.

Fazio has pulled off three wins in a suburban district that has seen overwhelming shifts toward Democrats at the top of the ballot. Stewart has won six elections in a working-class, Democratic city.

On the experience front, two vastly different resumes will be presented to Republican delegates and voters. Fazio has experience in the private sector and in the legislature. He’s been a public face in some of his party’s most heated fights under the golden dome. Stewart touts her executive experience over more than a decade in office.

As Somers previewed, both camps stand ready to shoot holes in the other’s record as they try to convince the base to back their candidate.

Of course, there remains a possibility that the race for the Republican nomination will not come down to a one-on-one between Fazio and Stewart. As with the Democratic fight over the 1st Congressional District, other candidates, declared and undeclared, could shake things up in the months to come.

Could a special election in Fairfield open up a key State Senate seat?

If Ryan Fazio is successful in securing the Republican nomination for governor, his party would be forced to contest an open race for his Greenwich-based State Senate seat which is already considered one of the most vulnerable GOP-held districts.

Depending on how an ongoing fight in nearby Fairfield pans out, the GOP could find themselves with an open seat in another district Democrats have long coveted.

The mechanics of how such an opening could occur are somewhat complex and ultimately dependent on the ambitions of one of the most enigmatic characters in the legislature: State Sen. Tony Hwang.

For some time now, rumors have swirled that Hwang is weighing a run for his town’s highest office in the 2027 municipal election. Fairfield's town charter prohibits municipal elected officials from simultaneously serving in state office. Tragic circumstances have created a situation in which the next election for first selectman could take place in a matter of months, not years.

Since the death of Bill Gerber, Fairfield’s former first selectman, there has been an open question of who will succeed him on a permanent basis and how his successor will be chosen.

State law and Fairfield’s town charter lay out a process in which the town’s remaining selectmen – currently one Democrat and one Republican – pick a person to fill the vacancy. The two members, acting First Selectman Christine Vitale and Selectman Brenda Kupchik, are deadlocked.

Should the deadlock hold, and it appears as though it will, the next step in the process would be a vote by a group of the town’s Democratic elected officials to choose a successor. This process is laid out in Chapter 146 of the Connecticut General Statutes.

That same section of state law also lays out a petitioning process for a special election, meaning anyone in town who gathers enough signatures can trigger an election which could effectively override the decision made by the group of Democratic elected officials. 

If Hwang indeed aspires to win first selectman’s office in a special election, he would have to make a move in the next few weeks.

Should he choose to try and run for first selectman, he’d come to the race with a unique set of strengths and weaknesses.

To say Hwang is omnipresent around Fairfield is an understatement. His knack for making public appearances has been compared to the likes of Dick Blumenthal and Susan Bysiewicz. His public profile and positioning as an unabashed moderate have driven him to a series of re-election victories that have vexed Fairfield’s well-organized Democrats.

On the other hand, Hwang’s willingness to buck his own party has sown discontent among some Republicans in his district – including in Fairfield. 

Key GOP players across the 28th District have bristled as they’ve watched Hwang break ranks with his State Senate caucus and appear alongside Democrats at press conferences. That displeasure has led to a spirited effort among conservatives to field a primary challenger in the event Hwang seeks re-election to the senate next year.

A run for first selectman might provide an off-ramp for those tensions, but it could also reignite frustrations among Hwang’s detractors.

Watch for movement in this ongoing succession fight this week.

We’ll be back next week with another edition of the Tip Sheet!